Precision Forecasts image image
Jan 25, 2024
Great News! The Climate Is Much Better Than Predicted. Now We Can Calm Down!

William M. Briggs

I am, and you will be, too, absolutely delighted by a new paper by Roy Spencer: ”Global Warming: Observations vs. Climate Models”.

This is a paper that will be celebrated with great joy and fervor by the great sea of people who are worried, near unto death, that “climate change” is going to cause the destruction of all things.

Roy showed that, “The observed rate of global warming over the past 50 years has been weaker than that predicted by almost all computerized climate models.”

And that, “Climate models that guide energy policy do not even conserve energy, a necessary condition for any physically based model of the climate system.”

He concluded: “Public policy should be based on climate observations-which are rather unremarkable-rather than climate models that exaggerate climate impacts.”

What wonderful news! News sure to be welcomed by activists, politicians, and exhausted windmill replacement blade salesmen the world over!

All those people who drag themselves out to early morning marches can sleep in! Been considering gluing yourself to works of art or the asphalt? No need! And you needn’t keep your appointment with your therapist to work on your devastating climate anxiety. Hallelujah, there is nothing to be anxious about!

I fully expect the White House will invite Roy to receive some kind of medal or award for the great scientific service he has done our panicked nation, and indeed the world. There is no reason for the anxious, nerve-wracking despair we have seen from all quarters. The order of the day shall be Stand Down and Enjoy the Weather!

Right?

Here’s the best bits, which are so good they’re self-explanatory.

image
Enlarged

We’ll come back to that caption in a moment. Because what it means is that things are even better than Roy has suggested, sober and cautious man that he is.

image
Enlarged

This is the kind of plot scientists or yore would look at and say, “Oops.” As we are confident modern scientists will do, too. They got it wrong, and badly wrong. Embarrassingly wrong. So wrong that they will surely go back and fix the mistakes before allowing anybody to even see, let alone rely on their models.

image
Enlarged

What I like best about this are those three lines, the green, black, and blue ones, which show the average temperatures from three different measurement sources. I make the discrepancy between the three 0.2C at the end, or perhaps a bit larger. Say, that’s a lot, isn’t it? Especially when the hand-wringing in the “climate community” has been over tenths of a degree changes.

What this means is that there is more uncertainty in climate measurements than what is normally considered. So much more uncertainty that it is yet another reason not to worry. The good news multiplies!

Roy goes on to suggest why climate models produce too much warming, and gives hints about other causes besides man that account for observed signals in temperature. Read the whole report. It’s good - and cheering!

He says things like, “The models must be ‘tuned’ to produce no climate change, and then a human influence is added in the form of a very small, roughly 1 percent change in the global energy balance.” This kind of tuning over such a small signal would make any model hyper-sensitive to the tuning. Which indeed we see.

Let’s return to the footnote on the first plot, which brings us to this site. Which you might want to play with. One word you’ll see on the site is ‘hindcasts’. I don’t want to get into the details today, but what it means is that past data is used to make predictions of the past. The past data is first used to create the models which make the predictions.

Nothing wrong with that, of course, because models have to be built somehow. But it does mean hindcasts-predictions of past data that was used once already in creating the models-will be better than forecasts, which are predictions of data never before seen.

So that when we look at the first picture and it looks like the models did better in the past, the reason for that is at least partly because the models are tuned to that data. Which means that true model performance is better estimated at the ends of the series. Which is worse performance. Which is more good news!

Another thing I think is true here (though I welcome correction) is that these are all one- or a few-time-periods-ahead predictions. That is, a climate model today could make monthly or yearly temperature predictions for next month or next year, or two months ahead or two years. Or three years, four, and so on. The predictions farther out will, all evidence suggests, be worse, and even far worse, than predictions made one time period ahead.

I think these pictures are all one-time-period-ahead predictions (made one at a time). If so, and if the farther-out predictions are worse like we expect them, and given the poor performance of these models near term, then that means we must put even less (or even no) trust in long-term predictions.

Which, again, is more great news! Whoo-hooo!, as The View audience would hoot. Because if the models are that bad, there’s no reason to get worked up over them.

I saved the best news for last. Most of what knots peoples’ panties about “climate change” are not small changes in some weird artificial global average temperature, but all the bad stuff that “climate change” is said will cause. Which is every bad thing.

Don’t you see why that’s terrific? Since the climate is not as bad as the models predicted, all that other bad stuff can’t be so bad either. Fantastic! Let us hear the sighs of relief sure to greet this spectacular news!

Dec 24, 2023
Dictatorial control, from Covid to climate!

Democrats accuse Trump of proclivities that they blatantly engage in, especially in Washington

Paul Driessen

I choked on my coffee when I read the headline: “Democrats raise specter of Trump dictatorship to boost Biden.” What a textbook example of “projection,” I laughed, referring to the psychology term for deflecting attention away from one’s own blatant behavior by claiming someone else is doing it.

Partisan media and politicos parroted the accusation, and the Biden campaign doubled down.

In the interest of fairness and accuracy, it’s appropriate then to revisit ways the Biden Administration, Democrats and their allies have battled wannabe dictators and defended freedom, democracy and viewpoint diversity in recent years. (Or not.) For example:

* Incessant Antifa rage, riots, rampaging and legal warfare against “Russia-colluding” President Trump, from his election and inauguration throughout and after his term in office.

* School, park and restaurant lockdowns, “social distancing” and mask “advisories,” mandates for “safe and effective” inoculations with vaccines approved with minimal study under “emergency use authorizations”, and endless misrepresentation and censorship by Biden officials, Democrat governors and “journalists” in the name of preventing Covid.

* Opening our southern border to untold millions of “undocumented noncitizens” mostly Latin Americans but also Chinese agents, drug smugglers, sex traffickers, terrorists and disease carriers.

* Billions in “student debt forgiveness,” forcing taxpayers to pay off huge loans to graduates who struggle to get six-figure jobs despite prestigious degrees in gender studies or community organizing.

* Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) and Environment Social Governance (ESG) programs, from K-12, college to law school, and into government and corporate arenas -to ensure that every component of society reflects racial, ethnic and gender proportionality, but never viewpoint or political diversity.

These and many other authoritarian actions impacted American society, freedoms, health and prosperity in countless negative ways. Far worse, many progressives and leftists hope they will pave the way for obeisance to even more dictatorial mandates promulgated in the name of saving our planet from supposed cataclysms inflicted by fossil-fuel-driven climate change.

Few will quibble that President Biden directed federal employees to take public transportation, ride bikes or rent electric vehicles for work travel, and hold virtual meetings instead of in-person gatherings.

These rules certainly won’t apply to private-jet globe-trotters like Climate Czar John Kerry, and EV’s mostly transfer emissions from tailpipes to distant countries where toxic pollution and child labor accompany the mining and processing of raw materials to make EV batteries. But at least some federal workers will now suffer the inconveniences they’re imposing on us commoners.

However, Team Biden’s endless torrent of dictatorial executive orders, regulatory mandates and twisted legal reinterpretations for electricity generation, vehicles, appliances, agriculture, housing and other matters are already impacting our industries, livelihoods, living standards and basic rights and freedoms.

These diktats are designed to force us to convert everything we now operate with coal, gasoline, diesel or natural gas to electric models. The United States will soon need 3-4 times more electricity than today - and still more to power the AI revolution.

But the same bureaucrats are shutting down coal, gas, nuclear and hydroelectric generators ensuring that electricity will be in short supply, generated primarily by weather-dependent wind turbines and solar panels, backed up by massive grid-scale battery systems, and thus unavailable or unaffordable during the coldest and hottest days, when electric heat or air conditioning becomes a matter of life or death.

In fact, just the batteries to back up nationwide electricity would cost up to $290 trillion (13 times US 2021 GDP)! Add that to wind, solar and transmission costs, and the juice to run your all-electric home, business, hospital, school or transportation will likely cost 30-40 cents per kilowatt-hour, instead of the 12-15 cents the average American is paying now.

It’s a prescription for repeated blackouts, economic disaster - and unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats micromanaging every aspect of our lives: what size home we can have; how warm or cool we can keep it; what cars we can drive and how far, or whether we too will be forced to walk, bike or take a bus; how many trips we can take in jetliners, in our lifetime; what foods we can eat (hint: not beef); maybe even how many new clothing items we will be “allowed” to purchase each year! 

Earlier this month, every House Republican voted to block President Biden’s electric vehicle mandates. They were joined by just five Democrats. That means 197 Democrats say Team Biden should be able to dictate what kind of car or truck you can drive. And Donald Trump has dictatorial proclivities?

The US and global ecological impacts will be equally harmful and widespread. Here are just a few.

Wind and solar installations, transmission lines and enormous battery complexes would sprawl across millions of acres of now scenic, wildlife habitat and agricultural land. A single solar facility proposed in Virginia would involve 3,000 acres of panels on 21,000 acres (over half the land area of Washington, DC). It’s just one of dozens of Virginia solar plans - on top of onshore and offshore wind turbine projects.

The installations “will power millions of homes,” supporters insist. Perhaps- but only when the wind is blowing and sun is shining at optimal intensities… maybe 15-30% of the year in northern latitudes, considering winter snow and sunlight, clouds, nighttime, zero wind and other factors.

Many local residents and other citizens don’t want these massive installations in their backyards; the habitat and scenic vista destruction, bird and bat killings, health problems, and electricity costs and disruptions that go with them; or being turned into energy colonies for progressive urban centers. They’ve already blocked more than 500 wind and solar projects, on environmental and other grounds.

That’s why Michigan, California, New York and Illinois have already enacted laws that give state bureaucrats authority over land use - the ability to exercise eminent domain and other powers over local governments that want to slow or stop the onrush of enormous, heavily subsidized industrial wind, solar, transmission line and other “green’ projects. More are likely to follow - depriving rural communities of their rights, property values and autonomy - to serve corporate interests that bankroll Democrat pols.

The federal “deep state” is likely to seek similar legislative authority - or simply assert authority - to implement President Biden’s national net-zero “renewable” energy transformation agenda.

UN and Biden “30x30” plans to “conserve” (make off limits to development) 30% of US and global lands and waters by 2030 will massively increase all these impacts and usurpations of power. Any areas not made off limits by 30x30, wilderness, park, refuge and other actions will be developed and desecrated to the hilt by wind, solar, transmission line, mining, biofuel and other “green energy” projects.

Meanwhile, international climate alarmists and bureaucrats are telling African and other impoverished nations how much they will be “permitted” to develop and improve their health and living standards - using only “sustainable, renewable” wind and solar power. It’s dictatorial colonialism at its worst.

And amid all that, China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and other rapidly developing countries are burning more coal, oil and gas ‘ and emitting more greenhouse gases - than most developed nations combined. That means US and EU economic suicide on the climate altar won’t make an iota of difference.

What we need is a president who will roll back or cancel these dictatorial decrees. Stop fast-tracking wind and solar projects. End abusive environmental justice, DEI and ESG programs. Return America to energy independence and affordable energy. Build the wall and control immigration. Stop weaponizing the Department of Justice. Above all, follow the law and Constitution.

How revolutionary, “dictatorial”. and refreshing… that would be!

Paul Driessen is senior policy advisor to the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org) and author of books and articles on energy, climate, environmental and human rights issues.


Contact me: pkdriessen@gmail.com

Nov 26, 2023
In Their Own Words

ABOVE IS A MUST SEE VIDEO

------------

David Evans, who consulted for the Australian Greenhouse Office (now the Department of Climate Change) 1999-2005 and 1998-2010, and was a believer in AGW until the evidence supporting the idea that CO2 emissions were the main cause of global warming reversed itself in 1998 to 2006, when he became a skeptic.

“The AGW scam involves a “regulating class’ of believers, consisting of the UN, western governments, major banks and finance houses, NGOs and greenies, totalitarian leftists, government-funded scientists, academia, renewables corporations and the mainstream news media. Against them are the doubters: independently-funded scientists, private-sector middle class, and amateurs. The regulating class does not try to hide its belief that it is cleverer and morally superior. Their solution is regulation of the whole world’s economy by themselves, which was the object at the failed Copenhagen climate conference. On climate change, the regulating class has won over the leadership of most professional and business organizations by lobbying and pressure.”

-------------

Eisenhower’s farewell address to the nation

“The free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers.

The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present- and is gravely to be regarded. Yet in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite. “
-------------

Vaclav Klaus, President of the Czech Republic, visited Australia in July 2011. In referring to the ideological orientations of those individuals and organisations who have significant financial and other vested interests in propagating the ‘Doctrine’ of anthropogenic induced climate change, President Klaus said: “They want to change us, to change our behaviour, our way of life, our values and preferences, they want to restrict our freedom because they themselves believe they know what is good for us. They are not interested in climate. They misuse the climate in their goal to restrict our freedom. What is endangered is freedom, the climate is okay.”

After noting that today’s human-induced climate change alarmists are the ideological descendents of the zero and negative population growth advocates of the 1970s who erroneously forecast that human population pressures would lead to increases in global poverty and growing shortages in resources, President Klaus went on to add: “They hate us, the humans, they consider us selfish and sinful creatures who must be controlled by them. I used to live in a similar world - called communism - and I know that it led to the worst environmental damage the world has ever experienced.”

SEEN IN THEIR OWN WORDS:

* Maurice Strong, senior advisor to Kofi Annan, U.N. Secretary-General who chaired the gigantic (40,000 participants) “U.N. Conference on Environment and Development” in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 , who was responsible for putting together the Kyoto Protocol with thousands of bureaucrats, diplomats, and politicians, stated: “We may get to the point where the only way of saving the world will be for industrial civilization to collapse...isn’t it our job to bring that about”.

* “In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill....All these dangers are caused by human intervention ...and thus the “real enemy, then, is humanity itself....believe humanity requires a common motivation, namely a common adversary in order to realize world government. It does not matter if this common enemy is “a real one or...one invented for the purpose.” Quote by the Club of Rome.

* UN Climate Chief Christine Figueres said “Our aim is not to save the world from ecological calamity but to change the global economic system (destroy capitalism).”

* UN IPCC Lead Author Ottmar Edenhofer in November 2010.  “One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy.” Instead, climate change policy is about how “we redistribute de facto the world’s wealth.”

* Timothy Wirth, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Global Issues, seconded Strong’s statement: “We have got to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of globaL warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic policy and environmental policy.”

* Richard Benedick, a deputy assistant secretary of state who headed policy divisions of the U.S. State Department, stated: “A global warming treaty must be implemented even if there is no scientific evidence to back the [enhanced] greenhouse effect.”

* “The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models.” Prof. Chris Folland, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

* “The models are convenient fictions that provide something very useful.” Dr David Frame, Climate modeler, Oxford University

* “It doesn’t matter what is true, it only matters what people believe is true.” Paul Watson, Co-founder of Greenpeace”

* “Unless we announce disasters no one will listen.” Sir John Houghton, First chairman of the IPCC

* “No matter if the science of global warming is all phony...climate change provides the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world.” Christine Stewart, former Canadian Minister of the Environment

* “A massive campaign must be launched to de-develop the United States. De-development means bringing our economic system into line with the realities of ecology and the world resource situation.” Paul Ehrlich, Professor of Population Studies

* “The only hope for the world is to make sure there is not another United States. We can’t let other countries have the same number of cars, the amount of industrialization, we have in the US. We have to stop these Third World countries right where they are.” Michael Oppenheimer, Environmental Defense Fund

* “Global Sustainability requires the deliberate quest of poverty, reduced resource consumption and set levels of mortality control.” Professor Maurice King

* “The big threat to the planet is people: there are too many, doing too well economically and burning too much oil.” - Sir James Lovelock, BBC Interview

* “We must make this an insecure and inhospitable place for capitalists and their projects. We must reclaim the roads and plowed land, halt dam construction, tear down existing dams, free shackled rivers and return to wilderness millions of acres of presently settled land.” David Foreman, co-founder of Earth First!

* “Complex technology of any sort is an assault on human dignity. It would be little short of disastrous for us to discover a source of clean, cheap, abundant energy, because of what we might do with it.” Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute

* “The prospect of cheap fusion energy is the worst thing that could happen to the planet.” Jeremy Rifkin, Greenhouse Crisis Foundation

* “Giving society cheap, abundant energy would be the equivalent of giving an idiot child a machine gun.” Prof Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University

* “My three main goals would be to reduce human population to about 100 million worldwide, destroy the industrial infrastructure and see wilderness, with it’s full complement of species, returning throughout the world.” - Dave Foreman, co-founder of Earth First!

* “Current lifestyles and consumption patterns of the affluent middle class - involving high meat intake, use of fossil fuels, appliances, air-conditioning, and suburban housing - are not sustainable.” Maurice Strong, Rio Earth Summit

* “All these dangers are caused by human intervention and it is only through changed attitudes and behaviour that they can be overcome. The real enemy, then, is humanity itself.’ - Club of Rome, The First Global Revolution

* “Mankind is the most dangerous, destructive, selfish and unethical animal on the earth.” - Michael Fox, vice-president of The Humane Society

* “Humans on the Earth behave in some ways like a pathogenic micro-organism, or like the cells of a tumor.” - Sir James Lovelock, Healing Gaia

* “The Earth has cancer and the cancer is Man.” - Club of Rome, Mankind at the Turning Point

* “A cancer is an uncontrolled multiplication of cells, the population explosion is an uncontrolled multiplication of people. We must shift our efforts from the treatment of the symptoms to the cutting out of the cancer. The operation will demand many apparently brutal and heartless decisions.” - Prof. Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb

* “A reasonable estimate for an industrialized world society at the present North American material standard of living would be 1 billion. At the more frugal European standard of living, 2 to 3 billion would be possible.” - United Nations, Global Biodiversity Assessment

* “A total population of 250-300 million people, a 95% decline from present levels, would be ideal” -Ted Turner, founder of CNN and major UN donor

* “… the resultant ideal sustainable population is hence more than 500 million but less than one billion.” - Club of Rome, Goals for Mankind

* “One America burdens the earth much more than twenty Bangladeshes. This is a terrible thing to say in order to stabilize world population, we must eliminate 350,000 people per day. It is a horrible thing to say, but it’s just as bad not to say it.”
- Jacques Cousteau, UNESCO Courier

* “If I were reincarnated I would wish to be returned to earth as a killer virus to lower human population levels.” - Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, patron of the World Wildlife Fund

* “I suspect that eradicating small pox was wrong. It played an important part in balancing ecosystems."- John Davis, editor of Earth First! Journal

* “The extinction of the human species may not only be inevitable but a good thing.” -Christopher Manes, Earth First!

* “Childbearing should be a punishable crime against society, unless the parents hold a government license. All potential parents should be required to use contraceptive chemicals, the government issuing antidotes to citizens chosen for childbearing.” David Brower, first Executive Director of the Sierra Club

* “We need to get some broad based support, to capture the public’s imagination… So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts… Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest.” - Stephen Schneider, Stanford Professor of Climatology, lead author of many IPCC reports

* “Unless we announce disasters no one will listen."- Sir John Houghton, first chairman of IPCC

* ‘In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill.’ - Club of Rome, The First Global Revolution

* “It doesn’t matter what is true, it only matters what people believe is true.” - Paul Watson, co-founder of Greenpeace

* The only way to get our society to truly change is to frighten people with the possibility of a catastrophe” - emeritus professor Daniel Botkin

* “We are on the verge of a global transformation. All we need is the right major crisis.” David Rockefeller, Club of Rome executive manager

* *Humanity is sitting on a time bomb. If the vast majority of the world’s scientists are right, we have just ten years to avert a major catastrophe that could send out entire planet’s climate system into a tail-spin of epic destruction involving extreme weather, floods, droughts, epidemics and killer heat waves beyond anything we have ever experienced - a catastrophe of our own making.” Al Gore, An Inconvenient Truth

* “By the end of this century, climate change will reduce the human population to a few breeding pairs surviving near the Arctic.  Sir James Lovelock, Revenge of Gaia

* “Climate Change will result in a catastrophic, global seal level rise of seven meters. That’s bye-bye most of Bangladesh, Netherlands, Florida and would make London the new Atlantis” Greenpeace International (It has risen less than 7 inches in 100 years and is decelerating)

* “We are close to a time when all of humankind will envision a global agenda that encompasses a kind of Global Marshall Plan to address the causes of poverty and suffering and environmental destruction all over the earth.” Al Gore, Earth in the Balance

“ “In Nature organic growth proceeds according to a Master Plan, a Blueprint. Such a ‘master plan[ is missing from the process of growth and development of the world system. Now is the time to draw up a master plan for sustainable growth and world development based on global allocation of all resources and a new global economic system. Ten or twenty years from today it will probably be too late.’ Club of Rome, Mankind at the Turning Point

“ “The concept of national sovereignty has been immutable, indeed a sacred principle of international relations. It is a principle which will yield only slowly and reluctantly to the new imperatives of global environmental cooperation.’ UN Commission on Global Governance report

* ‘The earth is literally our mother, not only because we depend on her for nurture and shelter but even more because the human species has been shaped by her in the womb of evolution. Our salvation depends upon our ability to create a religion of nature.” Rene Dubos, board member Planetary Citizens

* “A keen and anxious awareness is evolving to suggest that fundamental changes will have to take place in the world order and its power structures, in the distribution of wealth and income.” Club of Rome, Mankind at the Turning Point

* “Adopting a central organizing principle means embarking on an all-out effort to use every policy and program, every law and institution, to halt the destruction of the environment.” Al Gore, Earth in the Balance

* “Effective execution of Agenda 21 will require a profound reorientation of all human society, unlike anything the world has ever experienced - a major shift in the priorities of both governments and individuals and an unprecedented redeployment of human and financial resources. This shift will demand that a concern for the environmental consequences of every human action be integrated into individual and collective decision-making at every level.” - UN Agenda 21

* “Democracy is not a panacea. It cannot organize everything and it is unaware of its own limits. These facts must be faced squarely. Sacrilegious though this may sound, democracy is no longer well suited for the tasks ahead. The complexity and the technical nature of many of today’s problems do not always allow elected representatives to make competent decisions at the right time.” - Club of Rome, The First Global Revolution

* ‘In my view, after fifty years of service in the United National system, I perceive the utmost urgency and absolute necessity for proper Earth government. There is no shadow of a doubt that the present political and economic systems are no longer appropriate and will lead to the end of life evolution on this planet. We must therefore absolutely and urgently look for new ways."- Dr. Robert Muller, UN Assistant Secretary General

* “Nations are in effect ceding portions of their sovereignty to the international community and beginning to create a new system of international environmental governance as a means of solving otherwise unmanageable crises.” Lester Brown, WorldWatch Institute

* Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s chief of staff recently admitted that the ‘Green New Deal’ was not conceived as an effort to deal with climate change but instead a “how-do-you-change-the-entire economy thing”.. nothing more than a thinly veiled socialist takeover of the U.S. economy. The interesting thing about the Green New Deal is it was not originally a climate thing at all,” Saikat Chakrabarti said

Feb 09, 2024
The Next Big Climate Scare: Counting Climate Change Deaths

Steve Goreham in the Washington Examiner,

The next big climate scare is on the way. Advocates of measures to control the climate now propose that we begin counting deaths from climate change. They appear to believe that if people see a daily announcement of climate deaths, they will be more inclined to accept climate change policies. But it’s not even clear that the current gentle rise in global temperatures is causing more people to die.

In December, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke at COP28, the 28th United Nations Climate Conference, and mentioned climate-related deaths.

“We are seeing and beginning to pay attention and to count and record the deaths that are related to climate,” she said. “And by far the biggest killer is extreme heat.”

According to Ms. Clinton, Europe recorded 61,000 deaths from extreme heat in 2023, and she estimated that about 500,000 people died from heat across the world last year.

Global temperatures have been gently rising for the last 300 years. Temperature metrics from NASA, NOAA, and the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom estimate that Earth’s surface temperatures have risen a little more than one degree Celsius, or about two degrees Fahrenheit, over the last 140 years. But are these warmer temperatures harmful to people?

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, most cases of influenza occur during December to March, the cold months in the United States. Influenza season in the southern hemisphere takes place during the cold months there, April through September. The peak months for COVID-19 infections tended to be the cold periods of the year. More people usually get sick during cold months than in warm months.

More people also die during winter months than summer months, according to many peer-reviewed studies. For example, Dr. Matthew Falagas of the Alfa Institute of Medical Sciences and five other researchers studied seasonal mortality in 11 nations. The research showed that the average number of deaths peaked in the coldest months of the year in all of them.

image
Enlarged: A graph showing the number of countries/regions in the winter

The late Dr. William Keating studied temperature-related deaths in six European countries for people aged 65 to 74. He concluded that deaths related to cold temperatures were nine times greater than those related to hot temperatures. Dr. Bjorn Lomborg, president of the Copenhagen Consensus Center, has pointed out that moderate global warming will likely reduce human mortality.

Yet, on January 30, Dr. Colin J. Carlson of Georgetown University published a paper in Nature Medicine titled, “After millions of preventable deaths, climate change must be treated like a health emergency.” Carlson claims that climate change has caused about 166,000 deaths per year since the year 2000, or almost four million cumulative deaths.

Carlson admits that most of these deaths have been due to malaria in sub-Saharan Africa, or malnutrition and diarrheal diseases in south Asia. But he goes on to claim that deaths due to natural disasters and even cardiovascular disease should also be attributed to climate change. If death from cardiovascular disease can be counted as a climate death, almost any death can be counted.

The evidence doesn’t support these climate death claims. Malarial disease has plagued humanity throughout history, even when temperatures were colder than today. Dr. Paul Reiter, medical entomologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, points out that malaria was endemic to England 400 years ago during the colder climate of the Little Ice Age. The Soviet Union experienced an estimated 13 million cases of malaria during the 1920s, with 30,000 cases occurring in Archangel, a city located close to the frozen Arctic Circle.

Malnutrition has been declining during the gentle warming of the last century. During the early 1900s, as many as 10 million people would die from famine each decade globally. Today, world famine deaths have been reduced to under 500,000 people per decade. About 10% of the world’s people are malnourished today, but this is down from about 25% in 1970.

The number of deaths from natural disasters has also been falling during the warming over the last century. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, the deaths from disasters, including storms, famines, earthquakes, droughts, and floods, are down more than 90 percent over the last 100 years.

image
Enlarged:

With deaths from natural disasters and famine declining, and since fewer people die in warmer temperatures, the case for counting deaths from global warming is poor at best. But don’t underestimate the ability of climate alarmists to create fear by exaggerating the data.

Steve Goreham is a speaker on energy, the environment, and public policy and the author of the new bestselling book Green Breakdown: The Coming Renewable Energy Failure.
------------------
Icecap Note: Any warming not related to ocean, solar cycles or volcanism is driven by urbanization. NCEI has a data set(s) that are protected from the urban warming contamination by better instrumentation and especially better siting.

image
Enlarged:

Jan 22, 2024
Largest Protest in Human History is Under Way in Germany Against the Global Warming Cult!

Largest Protest in Human History is Under Way in Germany Against the Global Warming Cult

One of the most well-coordinated and massive protests in human history is happening in Europe right now. Blue collar and white collar workers are protesting the EU’s global warming insanity in an ingenious manner that has basically crippled the German economy.

If you haven’t heard anything about this here in America yet, that is because most of our media is on the side of globalist tyranny and against the people. The protests were initially described as another “farmer protest” in Germany, but they have grown into something much larger than that now.

Farms have been under a full-on assault by the global warming cultists and the WEF for a while now. Joe Biden’s “climate envoy” John Kerry has been running around claiming that family farms are going to have to be confiscated from people if we are going to save the planet from the weather. He actually says that. Out loud.

In the EU, that insanity is becoming a reality. The Irish government, for example, passed a law demanding that 1.3 million cows be slaughtered, so that their farts won’t hurt the weather. If the disruption to the global food supply causes lots of people to starve to death, well, that’s a feature of saving the planet from cow farts. You’ve got to break a few eggs in order to make a communist omelet and so forth.

The government has already killed about 10% of the livestock in the Netherlands. That’s a big part of the reason why the “farmer protests” happened in that country. World governments are basically telling “the little guy” that if they lose their livelihood or if they die, that’s a small price to pay for the greater good - for the earth.

Which brings us to the German protests this week.

The German government is trying to impose new restrictions on farms that will basically put small farms out of business. This is exactly the type of policy that John Kerry, who has never been on a farm in his life, is talking about.

Here’s how the amazing German protests have been unfolding.

On day one, the farmers started the protest. They drove their tractors into the cities and started blocking transport hubs, main arteries, and access to government buildings. It’s a nuisance, but the globalists figure they can outlast the farmers while vilifying them and calling them “threats to democracy.”

On day two...a huge number of Polish truck drivers crossed the border into Germany and joined the protest. They blocked even more main highways and shut down the border crossings in and out of Germany. If you’re a globalist in the German government, at this point you’ve got to be thinking, “Uh oh!”

On day three...all the rail workers in Germany went on strike in solidarity with the farmers. Now there are no trains running. The subways are not taking workers to the office. Those trains and trucks loaded with groceries that restock the store shelves in the cities are not coming. And Berlin has about three days’ worth of food on the grocery shelves. Who do you think is going to blink first in this situation?

If the trains aren’t running, then transport companies are forced to use trucks. But the truckers are standing in solidarity with the farmers. The farmers are blocking off the highways and main roads.

How long do you suppose people in Berlin will be willing to go hungry before they step out in solidarity against their fascist, globalist government?

The globalists like to pretend that “the little guy” doesn’t matter. They’re about to learn a painful lesson in Germany. The most important person in your society is not some government bureaucrat with a master’s degree in city administration who works in the Redundant Department of Official Redundancy.

The most important people in society have always been the guys who grow and provide the milk, eggs, cheese, steak, chicken, bread, salads, and bacon (especially bacon) that we all need to survive.

Globalism and neoliberalism have been abject failures. This is why nationalism is the way forward out of the mess that these people have made of the world. It’s why the people are revolting against their governments, by electing nationalist and populist leaders like Javier Milei and Donald Trump.

Tucker Carlson brings us a snapshot of these amazing, multi-dimensional protests in Germany in this short clip: One of the most well-coordinated and massive protests in human history is happening in Europe right now. Blue collar and white collar workers are protesting the EU’s global warming insanity in an ingenious manner that has basically crippled the German economy.

If you haven’t heard anything about this here in America yet, that’s because most of our media is on the side of globalist tyranny and against the people. The protests were initially described as another “farmer protest” in Germany, but they have grown into something much larger than that now.

Farms have been under a full-on assault by the global warming cultists and the WEF for a while now. Joe Biden’s “climate envoy” John Kerry has been running around claiming that family farms are going to have to be confiscated from people if we are going to save the planet from the weather. He actually says that. Out loud.

In the EU, that insanity is becoming a reality. The Irish government, for example, passed a law demanding that 1.3 million cows be slaughtered, so that their farts won’t hurt the weather. If the disruption to the global food supply causes lots of people to starve to death, well, that’s a feature of saving the planet from cow farts. You’ve got to break a few eggs in order to make a communist omelet and so forth.

The government has already killed about 10% of the livestock in the Netherlands. That’s a big part of the reason why the “farmer protests” happened in that country. World governments are basically telling “the little guy” that if they lose their livelihood or if they die, that’s a small price to pay for the greater good-for the earth.

Which brings us to the German protests this week.

The German government is trying to impose new restrictions on farms that will basically put small farms out of business. This is exactly the type of policy that John Kerry, who has never been on a farm in his life, is talking about.

Here’s how the amazing German protests have been unfolding.

On day one, the farmers started the protest. They drove their tractors into the cities and started blocking transport hubs, main arteries, and access to government buildings. It’s a nuisance, but the globalists figure they can outlast the farmers while vilifying them and calling them “threats to democracy.”

On day two...a huge number of Polish truck drivers crossed the border into Germany and joined the protest. They blocked even more main highways and shut down the border crossings in and out of Germany. If you’re a globalist in the German government, at this point you’ve got to be thinking, “Uh oh!”

On day three...all the rail workers in Germany went on strike in solidarity with the farmers. Now there are no trains running. The subways are not taking workers to the office. Those trains and trucks loaded with groceries that restock the store shelves in the cities are not coming. And Berlin has about three days’ worth of food on the grocery shelves. Who do you think is going to blink first in this situation?

If the trains aren’t running, then transport companies are forced to use trucks. But the truckers are standing in solidarity with the farmers. The farmers are blocking off the highways and main roads.

How long do you suppose people in Berlin will be willing to go hungry before they step out in solidarity against their fascist, globalist government?

The globalists like to pretend that “the little guy” doesn’t matter. They’re about to learn a painful lesson in Germany. The most important person in your society is not some government bureaucrat with a master’s degree in city administration who works in the Redundant Department of Official Redundancy.

The most important people in society have always been the guys who grow and provide the milk, eggs, cheese, steak, chicken, bread, salads, and bacon (especially bacon) that we all need to survive.

Globalism and neoliberalism have been abject failures. This is why nationalism is the way forward out of the mess that these people have made of the world. It’s why the people are revolting against their governments, by electing nationalist and populist leaders like Javier Milei and Donald Trump.

Tucker Carlson brings us a snapshot of these amazing, multi-dimensional protests in Germany in this short clip:

See also Public Charging Stations Turn into Electric ‘Car Graveyards’ in Bitter Chicago Coldhere

Nov 16, 2023
CO2, a hugely beneficial gas with large local variances

NOVEMBER 16

The official site for annual CO2 is Mauna Loa. The station at 11,300 feet high (3,444 meters), has a 131-foot (40-meter) tower that collects air to measure levels of carbon dioxide.

image
Enlarged

In 1958, Charles Keeling choose to install an atmospheric carbon dioxide monitoring system on Mauna Loa, a volcanic peak on the Big Island of Hawaii as the remote location would allow only carbon dioxide that had mixed with the atmosphere to be measured.

The latest annual numbers are around 420 which averages 0.04% of the air. Levels are lowest during July as vegetation is using it in photosynthesis and releasing O2.

image
Enlarged

image
Enlarged

It varies greatly where we actually live because when we breathe in the air with just 0.04% (420) ppm CO2), when we breathe out, we release 42,000 ppm. CO2 levels are much higher in populated areas and especially when people congregate (churches, schools, restaurants. even you home when the family and pets are there).

ITS NOT POLLUTION

HOME AND OFFICE AND SCHOOLS

Levels exceeding 2000 ppm are found in small offices and Ken. C., a science teacher writes, “In one classroom of 30 students after lunch reached CO2 levels of 4,825 ppm with the door closed. According to ASHRAE, the effects of poor indoor air quality in classrooms has been known for years. Chronic illnesses, reduced cognitive abilities, sleepiness, and increased absenteeism have all been attributed to poor IAQ. There is no direct harm from CO2, the claim is that it reduces oxygen levels.

CARS, TRAINS AND PLANES AND SUBMARINES

Studies found carbon dioxide levels rise to over 3,000 ppm in 30 minutes in an enclosed automobile with a single passenger.  In airplane cabins it may rise to 1700 ppm. The alarmists are more interested in the emission from the planes into the atmosphere and want those that fly (and drive or ride the rails) to be held accountable (see the proposed 50 tonnes CO2 per person as a lifetime limit here).

In submarines, levels range up to 11,300 ppm .

EDUCATING THE POPULACE

I have always considered myself an environmentalist and conservationist as well as a Meteorologist and Climatologist. I worked on my doctorate with an atmospheric chemistry grant.

In the post WWII boom, we had problems with air pollution from factories, coal plants, cars, inefficient home heating systems and incinerators in apartments. We had serious air quality issues with pollutants. We had problems with particulates, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, ozone and lead. The worst episodes that really drove efforts to fight pollution were from a atmospheric chemical reactions - cold season water droplets in fog mixed with SO2 to cause sulfuric acid mist. Smog events in Donora PA 1948 led to 6,000 of the 14,000 population to experienced damaged lungs, and the Great London 4 day 1952 Smog Event produced between 10-12,000 deaths.

Events like that still occur in China.

image
Enlarged

We set standards that had to be met by industry and automakers. After my BS and MS work at Wisconsin in Meteorology, I received a grant to study Air Resources/Pollution at NYU while I worked 7 days a week producing the weather fro WCBS TV and radio and the National Network on the Special series on Energy. Many of my colleagues moved into air quality at the EPA and elsewhere, After he work we all did there and at many schools on pollution, we have the cleanest air in my lifetime and here in the U.S. in the world today.

image
Enlarged

CO2 IS THE GAS OF LIFE

Notice CO2 was not on the list. CO2 is a trace gas (.04% of our atmosphere). It is NOT a pollutant but a beneficial gas. CO2 is essential for photosynthesis. CO2 enriched plants are more vigorous and have lower water needs, are more drought resistant. Ideal CO2 levels for crops would be 3 to 4 times higher. They pump CO2 into greenhouses!

image
Enlarged

image
Enlarged

The climate models used to predict the impacts of increasing CO2 deliver warming over 2 times that observed by our NOAA orbiting satellite measurements of the air above the boundary layer where the greatest changes occur diurnally.

image
Enlarged

image
Enlarged

The apparent weak correlation to temperatures may be mostly the timing of the natural cycles. Longer term warming correlates with CO2 increases only 40% of the time.

image
Enlarged

Sadly there have been changes that minimized the warm period from the 1920s to 1940s to try to make the case stronger.

image
Enlarged

image
Enlarged

image
Enlarged

CONCLUSION: CO2 IS NOT POLLUTION BUT A VALUABLE PART OF LIFE ON OUR PLANET

I have 2 CO2 monitors - I bought one - actually using Amazon credits and it arrived the next morning. One high quality model was donated to me to use by the CO2 coalition.  I found with my daughter and 2 small dogs in the room, levels rise to over 800. At a football gathering of 8, it rose from 420 to near 1700 ppm. Had our team been doing better, we may have had a gathering with twice a many people and CO2 levels would have been well over 2000. I used and talked about our findings at a church organized meeting.

Many people confuse/conflate CO2 with the potentially deadly CO. That included a decade ago the chair of NH Science and Energy committee when I was one of the testifiers. She said she was taught CO2 was a health hazard (confusing with CO).

I found the story can influence people with open minds. If the CO2 is seen to be locally much higher where people congregate, I am a bit afraid the radical movement and would take that fact on as another cause and try to enforce extreme measures (limiting driving, flying, congregating in large events), to pretend it will keep levels low and it becomes another costly program with much more harm than benefit as their assault on fossil fuel energy usage and the whole COVID episode has been the last 3+ years.

-------------

From the CO2 Coaltion

According to Patrick Moore, chairman and chief scientist of Ecosense Environmental and co-founder of Greenpeace, the climate change messaging isn’t based in fact.

“The whole thing is a total scam,” said Mr. Moore. “There is actually no scientific evidence that CO2 is responsible for climate change over the eons.”

Mr. Moore said that over the past few decades, the climate message has continually changed; first, it was global cooling, then global warming, then climate change, and now it’s disastrous weather.

This is from Epoch Times and pay walled. Here is a pdf of the article.

------------

I over the years gave many talks on climate - see a recent 50 minute story:

Climate Story

image

Feb 18, 2024
A Climate Science Team Report on the Scientific Validity of EPA’S 2009 GHG Endangerment Finding

February, 2024

On December 11, 2023, the Supreme Court refused to examine the numerous science-based arguments contained in a Petition for Reconsideration of EPA’s 2009 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Endangerment Finding. (See)

This court ignored the eight quite specific, but easy to understand scientific arguments contained in the Petition and simply denied the Petition claiming the petitioners did not have Standing - a well-known tactic to avoid decisions in a highly politically-charged situation.

Unfortunately, this Supreme Court decision denied scrutiny to the one regulation in the U.S. that is not only the single most economically significant, but also the single most scientifically flawed, of all of the regulations on the Federal books.The ramifications of this Supreme Court Denial will be enormous if an EPA GHG Endangerment Finding Reconsideration is not initiated very quickly. This fact should have been clear to the Court by the arguments quoted verbatim below: 

“In short, based on the sum total of the eight validated arguments {contained in the Petition}, the currently contemplated Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) estimates are not only worthless; they are extremely dangerous to put forward to current U.S. energy, economic and national security-related policymakers as credible input to their analyses.

As clearly demonstrated by this body of research findings, climate alarmism has no basis in science. This alarmism is all driven and supported by fabricated temperature data as well as mathematical climate modeling and analytical incompetence. Motives of key scientists and other key players will be left to others to sort out.

Based on the easily reproducible, peer-reviewed and published research cited herein, climate science now finds that there is no mathematically valid proof that past increases in atmospheric GHG concentrations have caused the officially reported global warming over the last 50 years or so. Therefore, there is no proof of any social costs related to such GHG emissions. In fact, these GHG emissions are beneficial to society no matter what processes by which they might occur. Typically, if the efficiency of the particular process involved can be improved, such GHG emissions will automatically be reduced through action by a competitive marketplace. If not, there is no cost to society in any case.

Finally, on-going fact checks of the 13 most common climate alarmist claims have consistently validated that absolutely nothing unusual is going on with the Earth’s climate system. Moreover, in the considerable research cited, changes in the Earth’s temperature have been shown to be readily explained by natural factors involving changes in solar, volcanic and oceanic/atmospheric activity.

These findings strongly suggest that America and its allies have already made extremely severe climate policy errors, the negative impacts of which will only grow exponentially. By taking these erroneous climate and energy policy actions, America is rapidly destroying its energy security to the detriment of its economic and national security but to the great benefit of all three of its major enemies: China, Russia and Iran.

This must stop immediately and America must now reverse course quickly - taking the following actions:

* All efforts by state and federal governments to subsidize in any way the use of any renewable energy sources must be immediately terminated.

* All current state and federal as well as private (e.g., financial) sector efforts to inhibit the finding, production and use of all fossil fuels must be immediately terminated.

* All U.S. government action and funding at all levels to take steps to regulate the emissions of all GHGs must be immediately terminated - since they are all beneficial gases. Regulation of Criteria Pollutants under the CAA has been very successful and must be continued.

* This new information on climate science must be widely publicized via every possible credible channel targeting today’s relevant audiences, including: key federal and state leadership, financial, fossil fuel and auto sector leadership as well as key media outlets.

The utter lunacy of America’s Federal Government leadership continuing to take the unsuspecting American people on this ride over a cliff would certainly seem to be outrageous behavior on the part of those who know, or should know, the facts. Many of these key facts, e.g., the Global Average Surface Temperature data fabrication, have been provided to high level officials years ago without result. For the sake of all Americans, we pray that recipients of this transmission will behave differently.”

AUTHOR COMMENTS

All research by the authors of this document cited herein was peer-reviewed, published and purposely set up so as to be easily reproducible. No rebuttals have been received by the lead author from any person or entity. The research effort, that began in 2009, is all still being carried out on a pro bono basis. PART II provides an easy to understand, corroborated proof that EPA’s 2009 GHG Endangerment Finding is fatally flawed. Nevertheless, the Supreme Court saw fit to Totally Ignore the Science Team’s arguments provided verbatim in Appendix II denying consideration thereof based on “standing issues”.

See the full document here with the 8 validated arguments in the petition and the 13 most common climate alarmist claim fact checks as well as the list of authors and reviewers.

Feb 17, 2024
Climate Alarmist Claim Fact Checks

Joseph D’Aleo, CCM Link

This document is an update of an earlier version contained in the following filings with EPA: here (see pages 17-21), and here (see pages 20-24).

Below are a series of fact checks of the 13 most common climate claims such as those made in the recently released Fourth National Climate Assessment Report. The contributors of these reviews are all recognized experts in the relevant fields. For each claim, a brief summary of the relevant rebuttal is provided along with a link to the full text and graphical support of the rebuttal and the names and the credentials of the authors of for each rebuttal.

A paper just issued here “A Critical Assessment of Extreme Events in Trends in Times of Global Warming”, Gianluca Alimonti et al., European Physical Journal Plus, 2022 reviews recent bibliography on time series of some extreme weather events and related response indicators in order to understand whether an increase in intensity and/or frequency is detectable. “None of these response indicators show a clear positive trend of extreme events. In conclusion on the basis of observational data, the climate crisis that, according to many sources, we are experiencing today, is not evident yet.”

Also Ralph Alexander With GWPF has issued a report Extreme Weather, the IPCC’s Changing Tune. This paper compares empirical observations of extreme weather events with their coverage in the 2021 Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The conclusions of AR6 are contrasted with observational data described in recent research papers and reports, particularly in relation to droughts, tropical cyclones, heatwaves (including marine heat waves) and cold extremes. The paper also covers major floods, tornadoes, wildfires and coral bleaching, with a short update of the discussion of disaster risk analysis.

----------

Claim: The globe has experienced among the warmest ever month or year in the entire record back to the 1800s. This claim is recurrent - often monthly.

Fact Check: These claims are totally unsupported by any credible analysis of raw global surface temperature data and its availability.  Moreover, this Global Average Surface Temperature Data invalidation alone, invalidates the EPA 2009 GHG/CO2 Endangerment Finding as well as the subsequent EPA Findings’ claimed link between rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the other Climate Alarmist claims - which are also independently invalidated below by relevant empirical data. Thus, all such climate alarmist claims are in reality just politically driven fictions. See details here. See a Timeline of Surface Data versions here

See Bombshell report: 96% of U.S. Climate data is Corrupted:

Satellite data for the lower troposphere shows a fraction of the warming of the surface stations. The greenhouse theory say the heating should be greater in the tropical atmosphere where greenhouse gases are theorized to be trapping the heat (tropical hot spot).

image
Enlarged

John Robson from Climate Discussion Nexus shows this very well in this video.

And here:

Fact Check as of: 12/16/22
----------

Claim: Heat Waves are more frequent and extreme. Heat waves kill people and greenhouse gases are to blame.

Fact Check: Heat waves like cold waves are a normal part of our global climate. Heat Waves have been decreasing since the 1930s in the U.S. and globally. See details here. See a summary of summer sizzle in 2022 here.  See Dr. Cliff Mass’s excellent 2021 post “Flawed Heatwave Report Leads to False Headlines in Major Media Blogpost.  “Last week we witnessed a major failure in science communication regarding the Northwest heatwave. A failure that misinformed you and millions of others, and a failure that highlighted glaring weaknesses in the media’s ability to cover important scientific issues.  And it revealed the disappointing behavior of some members of the scientific community.” See full detailed analysis here. Roger Pielke Jr, tells “What the media won’t tell you about U.S. heat waves here. See this why amplified patterns, a feature of cooling climates, are behind the warm and cold extremes in 2021 and again this year here. here.  Cold not heat is the real threat. Cold kills up to 20 times or more than heat globally and has disastrous economic impacts. See details on why cold not heat is the main danger to humanity here. See more recent mortality studies that show a statistically significant excess mortality for cold over heat here.
Fact Check as of: 09/16/22
----------

Claim: Hurricanes have been increasing in number and/or extremity.

Fact Check: Even with a few very active seasons, the last decade ended was the second quietest for landfalling hurricanes and landfalling major hurricanes in the U.S since the 1850s. 2020 saw a record 30 named storms and many Gulf impacts like the late 1800s and active periods this past century, but the Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index (ACE) ranked only 13th highest in 2020. The 1860s and 1880s had the most landfalling hurricanes and major hurricanes. See a perspective on Major Hurricane Ian here. See summary through 2022 here. See this June 2021 NOAA study that though 2020 was technically a record, modern technology is likely a reason including the ability to see storms over the open oceans of the central and eastern Atlantic with satellites that would not have been seen and counted in the pre-satellite era. See 2020 season similarity to late 1800s here.  See a perspective on deadly 2021 CAT4 hurricane Ida and a similarity to Camille in 1969 here. See the summary on 2018 here. See the preliminary 2023 Hurricane season analysis here
Fact Check as of: 12/08/23
----------

Claim: Tornadoes have been increasing as the world has warmed due to human influences.

Fact Check: More active months and seasons occur when unseasonable cold spring patterns are present. Warmer cycles feature fewer big tornado seasons. The number of strong tornadoes has declined dramatically over the last half century. That will reverse as we go into the next cold phase. Even with a major, deadly outbreak and long track storm in December, 2021, the year ended in the lowest 25th percentile for tornadoes. Through October, 2022 also fell in the lower 25th percentile for tornadoes with no level EF5 major tornadoes now for the last 11 years, the longest stretch in the entire record despite better detection. A return to more active seasons would eventually occur as the earth cools with the colder Pacific and low solar. . See in the full updated story how the 2022 started strong early but has quieted to below the 25th percentile here
Fact Check as of: 01/05/23
----------

Claim: Droughts and Floods are becoming more severe worldwide due to global warming.

Fact Check: Droughts and floods here has shown no statistically significant trends. Each year wet and dry areas are seen but their locations change, related to ocean warm and cold pools that drive atmospheric patterns that persist for months at a time. This year, the Atlantic and Pacific ocean configurations supported drought issues in the central which verified.  See details here. See how claims that drought from climate change is causing Lake Mead water levels to plunge us wrong on both counts here. See Viv Forbes reports on La Nina floods in Australia in Floods and Droughts are Nothing New here.
Fact Check as of: 10/16/22
----------

Claim: Wildfires are increasing due to drought and increasing heat.

Fact Check: Wildfires diminished very rapidly in size and numbers after the very active 1800s. The increase in damage in recent years is due to population growth in vulnerable areas and poor forest management. See details here. See this analysis that shows how public lands are ablaze but private lands are not because they are properly managed here. See A Growing Sea of Snags: North Umpqua River Wildfires, 2002-2022 - Risks and Recommendations here. See a telling media story on the deadly Maui wildfires real causes here and more here.  See Australia Wildfire story here See the update in 2023-24 detailing how record snows (up to 900 inches) in California and surrounding areas of the west resulted in a big drop in the areas burned. Smoke from a droughty Canada fires did reduce visibility in the northern states discussed in June 2023 here
Fact Check as of: 02/23/24

----------

Claim: Snow is decreasing as the earth warms, threatening the winter sports industry.

Fact Check: This is one claim that has been repeated for decades even as nature showed very much the opposite trend with unprecedented snows even to the big coastal cities. Every time they repeated the claim, it seems nature upped the ante more. Alarmists have eventually evolved to crediting warming with producing greater snowfall, because of increased moisture but the snow events in recent years have usually occurred in colder winters with high snow water equivalent ratios in frigid arctic air. The eastern United States as an example had 28 high impact winter snowstorms in the 10 years ending on 2019/20. No prior ten-year period since 1950 had more than 10. Winters in the last decade or so produced snow records and snowcover that lasted well into the spring. Snowcover in the Northern Hemisphere, North America and Eurasia has been increasing since the 1960s in the fall and winter but declining in the spring. However, as NOAA advised around 2000 might be the case, snowcover measurement methodology changes (automated instead man/machine) at the turn of this century may be responsible for most of the warm season differences. “Warming is not causing snow to disappear.” See more here. See the story on the incredible winter snows of 2022/23 in the west here. Fact Check as of: 10/03/23
----------

Sea levels are rising at an alarming rate threatening coastal cities
Fact Check: The rate of global sea level rise on average has fallen by 40% the last century. Where today, it is increasing - local factors such as land subsidence are to blame. See details here. See how sea level trends are being adjusted here. to better fit the theory. See how between 1985 and 2015, satellite observations indicate the world’s coasts gained 13,565 km2 more land area than they had lost to the seas (Donchyts et al., 2016).
Fact Check as of: 04/05/23
----------

Claim: Ice in the arctic, Greenland and Antarctic is melting at an alarming rate.

Fact Check: The polar and glacial ice varies with multidecadal cycles in ocean temperatures. Current levels are comparable to or above historical low levels. Arctic ice returned to higher levels with a very cold winter in 2019/20. Ice was highest level since 2013. See details here . See update here on the AMO, PDO ocean cycles, the Solar cycles and Arctic temperatures. See here how the South Pole had its coldest winter on record last season (with readings averaging -78F at the South Pole Vostok station!). Records began in 1957 here.  Note the polar ice is this season (2021/22) is the 16th lowest on record with a nice rebound. NSIDC continues to hide data before 1979 which shows the changes are cyclical.

The alarmists jump on any yearly anomalies if they suit their theories. See the latest claims here. See the real story here and here. See the Alaskan winter temperature extremes that are characteristic of La Ninas with long brutal cold spells and warm spikes. The media ignore the extreme cold but focus on the warm days shown here. Also see the failures of the arctic’s demise in this post on “Is the Arctic Ice to Disappear?” in Human Progress here. See how the polar bears are thriving even in the warmer periods here.

See Tony Heller’s check on NYT’s Paul Krugman’s latest flawed article on the heat and Norway warmth.

See this analysis of Antarctic ice cover which has increased.

image
Enlarged

Fact check as of: 01/17/24
----------

Claim: Climate change is endangering food supply.

Fact Check: The vitality of global vegetation in both managed and unmanaged ecosystems is better off now than it was a hundred years ago, 50 years ago, or even a mere two-to-three decades ago thanks in part to CO2. A greening of the planet has resulted and the Sahara desert has shrunk by 8%. CO2 has reduced the vitality of plant life and reduced the water need. A greening of the planet has resulted and the Sahara desert has shrunk by 8%. CO2 has reduced the vitality of plant life and reduced the water need. See the update here.  See also in Science how growing forests provide conflicting effects on the temperatures here.  See Patrick Moore’s interview here.

Fact Check as of: 09/26/21
----------

Claim: Carbon pollution is a serious and growing health hazard.

Fact Check:  The term “carbon pollution” is a deliberate, ambiguous, disingenuous term, designed to mislead people into thinking carbon dioxide is pollution. Thanks to the use of clean burning natural gas and other measures, the amount of particulate matter and other criteria pollutants identified by the EPA have declined over 77% and are well below the standards set. The United States had in 2020 the cleanest air in the world according to NASA and the World Health Organization (WHO). See details here. See this detailed scientific proof that Particulate Matter in Indoor/Outdoor Air Does NOT Cause Death here.
Fact Check as of: 01/29/23
----------

Claim: Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are causing ocean acidification, which is catastrophically harming marine life.
.
Fact Check: Ocean acidification (really only slightly reduced alkalinity) is often found to be a non-problem, or even a benefit. Numerous scientific studies have demonstrated the robustness of multiple marine plant and animal species to ocean acidification when they are properly performed under realistic experimental conditions. See more here. See also Peter Ridd’s recent finding of a New Record High Coral Cover of the Great Barrier Reef here.
Fact Check as of: 02/03/19
----------

Claim: There is a 97% Consensus of the world’s scientists that climate change is serious and man-made.

Fact Check: The claim of a 97% scientific consensus is a contrived fiction. CO2 is not a pollutant but a beneficial gas, particulate matter is. But as shown above, small and large particulate matter is not an issue. As also shown above all the claims of dangerous effects on the climate are also shown to be exaggerated or outright falsifications. See details here.


Fact Check as of: 11/22/22
----------

Each section details claim and links to a detailed scientific analysis with supporting graphics and links. 

See how the global deaths related to all the extremes have declined dramatically the last century.

image
Enlarged

See Professor Ole Humlum’s review or the State of the Climate using real data here:

Professor Ian Plimer here on Green Murder here

Apr 04, 2023
The challenge of distinguishing reality from fantasy

“The greatest challenge facing mankind is the challenge of distinguishing reality from fantasy, truth from propaganda”… Michael Crichton

Thursday April 6th, 2023

Why are we in such a huge hurry to dismantle what we know works for something that is very likely impossible to do?

Certainly China and India aren’t falling for the most recent UN claim that “This is our last chance” to do something to stop climate change. They are continuing to build coal fired power plants. Oh, China may give lip service to reducing carbon dioxide emissions but their actions speak much louder than their words! Weather balloons my ass!

The UN has been saying “This is our last chance” for forty years. You would think by now someone in government and the news media would realize that crying wolf when there is none should call into question the credibility of those doing so.

Whenever the UN IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) comes out with another dooms day report as they recently did, it’s treated as a sacred cow. Virtually no major media outlet ever questions the motives of the people behind the curtain at the UN.

Are they completely unaware of why the IPCC was created in the late 1980s? Have they not read the words of those in charge? Are they unaware that the true goal of the UN is to destroy free markets and in doing so eliminate freedom itself?

Below is an article from February 10th, 2015 published by Investors Business Daily. It spells it out clearly what the UN is really up to.

The alarmists keep telling us their concern about global warming is all about man’s stewardship of the environment. But we know that’s not true. A United Nations official has now confirmed this.

At a news conference last week in Brussels, Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change, admitted that the goal of environmental activists is not to save the world from ecological calamity but to destroy capitalism.

“This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution,” she said.

Referring to a new international treaty environmentalists hope will be adopted at the Paris climate change conference later this year, she added: “"This is probably the most difficult task we have ever given ourselves, which is to intentionally transform the economic development model for the first time in human history.”

The only economic model in the last 150 year that has ever worked at all is capitalism. The evidence is prima facie: From a feudal order that lasted a thousand years, produced zero growth and kept workdays long and lifespans short, the countries that have embraced free-market capitalism have enjoyed a system in which output has increased 70-fold, workdays have been halved and lifespans doubled.

Figueres is perhaps the perfect person for the job of transforming “the economic development model” because she’s really never seen it work. “If you look at Ms. Figueres’ Wikipedia page,” notes Cato economist Dan Mitchell: Making the world look at their right hand while they choke developed economies with their left.

Figueres has also said that even if the whole science of climate change is wrong we would still be doing the right thing. The right thing? The right thing to her and those around her is to eliminate freedom of choice and bow to the UN and its way of running the world. A one government world with no regard to what most people want, freedom.

The letter below makes a lot of good points.

Letter to the Editor from the Waterbury Republican American 4/5/23

AMERICANS ARE BEING BLINDSIDED IN THEIR CHASE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES

In pre-industrial times, you knew who the butcher, baker, candlestick maker were. You knew where your meat and potatoes came from.

Even in the early 20th century, you knew that Henry Ford made your Model T in his factory in Dearborn, Mich. You knew the gas came from Texas.

Today, few of us consumers have a clue or even care where our meat and potatoes come from, and few folks complain about their iPhones being made in China or the stores being full of imported stuff.

The same is true of electricity. Who makes it? Where is it made? How is it made? How does it make it to the marketplace?

The vast majority of the public is unaware or doesn’t care. As long as the lights stay on and they don’t get a shut-off notice, it’s all good.

Today, the problem I see with such an uneducated public is they have less than zero understanding of the electric power industry, and they are taken in by the green crowd who are scaring us with horror stories that we must go green by 2030, or the earth will be “over the tipping point” (according to a recent United Nations press release) if we don’t give up oil.

I think electric vehicles (EVs) are OK if they are kept to 5-10% of the U.S. market; the grid could probably support that, but it is uneducated madness to expect that in 10 years vehicles must go 100% electric.

After the meltdown accident at Three Mile Island in 1979, Chernobyl in 1986, and in Fukushima, Japan in 2011, it’s not likely the U.S. public will support new zero-emission nuclear power plants. Even if we started building a network of them today, it would be decades before they could be operational, due to lengthy approvals, local opposition, lawsuits, and very expensive, lengthy construction times.

Even the very green-leaning Bill Gates has stated that nuclear power is the only system that can crank out enough power to juice up 300 million EVs in the U.S.

I highly doubt any new, massive hydroelectric power plants will ever be built. Who wants to flood a pristine valley?

Solar and wind, have proven to be unreliable for mass consumption, and not all regions receive enough wind or sunlight.

The new 350-foot deep pit mine now being dug in Nevada to unearth the lithium needed for EV batteries will only supply 5% of the U.S. market; the rest must be imported from China on - you guessed it - oil-guzzling container ships! Ask how many more ships will need to be built to transport the millions of tons of raw materials needed to build 300 million EV batteries. (And no, those ships will run on diesel fuel, not batteries or solar panels.)

Do the math. Where and how do you mine, transport, and manufacture 300 million 1000-pound batteries for the 300 million new EVs needed to replace every gas-powered car in the country? And how would you do this in the next decade?

Aren’t most of the rare metals and chemicals in each new EV battery not recyclable?

Mindless groupthink is never a good thing ... General Patton once said, “If everyone is thinking alike, someone isn’t thinking.”

I think the average American consumer had better wake up and start asking questions about not just where their meat and potatoes come from, but where their electric power comes from. Then they should ask if EVs are really that green, and if we are creating a cure worse than the alleged problem we are being sold.

Dec 07, 2023
Hurricane Season 2023

By Joseph DAleo, CCM Co-Chief Meteorologist Weatherbell Analytics, LLC

Climate alarmists have consistently said we could look forward to more frequent and stronger hurricanes, thanks to climate change. Our climate is always changing but the changes are driven by natural cycles. Ocean temperature events like El Nino and La Nina and longer-term cycles like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) determine where hurricanes are most likely to occur and how strong and damaging they may become.

In 2023, in the Pacific, a strong El Nino developed in the eastern Pacific after a 3 year stubborn La Nina, favoring more and stronger storms in the Pacific.  Meanwhile, a record warm tropical and subtropical Atlantic created a conducive environment for the continuation of overall above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons.  However, the El Nino played a role in keeping all but one Atlantic storm (Idalia) out at sea.

A great example of the roles of the oceans has been observed the last half century. When the Atlantic was cold in the 1960s to early 1990s (negative AMO or Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) Atlantic storms were much less frequent and landfalls mostly limited to the Gulf Coast. When the Atlantic swung into its multi-decadal warm mode in the late 1990s, the activity in the Atlantic more than doubled on average.

image
Enlarged

The Atlantic temperatures spiked in 2023 as the planet readjusted after 3 years of La Nina. Some scientists believe that Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai erupted in January 2022, shot 146 metric megatons of water into the stratosphere potentially contributing to atmospheric warming according to a new study published in Nature Climate Change.

THE PACIFIC OCEAN CYCLE - EL NINOS VS LA NINAS

Activity tends to be higher in the Atlantic Basin when the Atlantic is warm and when La Ninas and the negative (cold) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are in place in the tropical Pacific. The cold eastern Pacific waters in La Ninas reduce hurricane development in that region but do not affect Atlantic activity.

When El Ninos and the warmer Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are present, hurricanes become more likely there but the east Pacific storms produces shear in the upper atmosphere in the Atlantic that disrupts developing storms.

Gray 1984 found that of the 54 major hurricanes striking the U.S. coast between 1900 and 1983, only 4 occurred in 16 El Nino years in contrast to 50 making landfall during the 68 non El Nino years. This is a rate of 0.25 major hurricanes during El Nino and 0.74 per year in non-El Nino years, almost a 3 to 1 ratio. Tartaglione etal in 2002 showed there was a 71% greater chance of an impact on the east coast in La Nina years

When a three-year La Nina faded this spring and summer, expectations were that the warm water would generate super storms in the Pacific Basin.

image
Enlarged

Indeed Hurricane Hillary on late August became the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in California in over eight decades. Death Valley, known for being the hottest place on earth, received a year’s worth of rain in 24 hours, had its wettest day in history. Otis followed in late October intensifying a full five categories, from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane - the highest level - in less than 24 hours before landfall on Mexico.

For the Atlantic, record warm ocean temperatures August to October resulted in 20 named storms, 4th highest for the U.S. but thanks to El Nino, only Hurricane Idalia made landfall with max winds of 110 kt the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida since 1896.

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index, the best measure of the seasons activity shows the active period starting in the middle 1990s with the Atlantic AMO in it’s warm mode.

image
Enlarged

The late season was characterized by sinking motion and no storm development in the Caribbean during September, often a busy time of year. Without tropical activity, drought conditions prevailed in the western Gulf States.

image
Enlarged

The El Nino was biased to the eastern Pacific during the early to mid tropical season, which kept the overall numbers down in the western Pacific region.

image
Enlarged

It should be noted that the 2023 season was characterized by unusual rapid intensification of some of the storms that impacted land as well as unusual landfall locations.  Dr. Phil Klotzbach, one of the many star students of the late great Dr. Bill Gray continues his fine work at CSU. See his excellent detailed review of this unusual season here.

See more detail on hurricane seasons here

Sep 19, 2022
Lake Mead Is Draining, Not Climate Changing

by ROY W. SPENCER September 7, 2022, 11:48 PM

The media is promoting disinformation on the cause of the reservoir’s record-low level.

image
Lake Mead (Michael Vi/Shutterstock)

The water level in Lake Mead is reaching record lows and the popular narrative maintains that drought brought on by human-caused climate change is to blame. But the government’s own data from the Bureau of Reclamation shows this is not true.

Imagine a large city has been built in the middle of the Sahara Desert. Since no precipitation falls there, a large man-made reservoir is created with water piped in from a thousand miles away. The desert city grows over time, but the water supply does not. Over the years, the desert city must ration water as the reservoir is drained due to overuse. In this hypothetical situation, would it be rational to blame the water shortage on drought and global warming? No.

Yet, this is the situation we have with Lake Mead.

As can be seen in the Bureau of Reclamation’s official estimate of the yearly natural water flows into Lake Mead, there has been no long-term trend in water flow into the reservoir.

image

Yearly natural water flows into Lake Mead at Lees Ferry, Nevada, since 1930. The measured flows have been corrected for upstream diversions created over time to provide a best estimate of whether climate change has caused drought-induced reductions in water supply to Lake Mead. Details of those corrections are described here. Data source here.

Most of the water supplying the Colorado River at this location comes from snowmelt in the upper Colorado River watershed. The April snowpack in that region also shows no trend.

image

Upper Colorado River watershed snowpack as estimated each April from 1938 to 2022. Department of Agriculture data source here.

So, why is Lake Mead losing so much water? The answer is overuse. The Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study, published in 2012, showed that water demand from Lake Mead increased rapidly over the decades but remained less than water supply until around 2000, after which usage exceeded the available water supply in most years. This is what can be expected when we build cities in the desert (e.g. Las Vegas) and grow crops on arid land where there is insufficient natural precipitation.

That virtually every news story we read blames the water crisis on climate change or drought leads to widespread disinformation on the causes of falling water levels in Lake Mead. This then leads to expensive and misguided solutions to the problem. For example, on July 22, Forbes published an article titled “Why Is Lake Mead Shrinking? Climate Change Is a Major Reason.” Also in July, NASA published ”Lake Mead Keeps Dropping,” in which the agency stated the reservoir “provides a stark illustration of climate change.”

In fact, climate change does not even predict reductions in precipitation in the region that feeds water to Lake Mead.

image

CMIP6 climate model projections of yearly precipitation over the upper Colorado River watershed. Climate model data archived here.

Rational approaches to climate change, to the extent it exists, must be informed by accurate data. This is why Dr. John Christy and I created and continue to maintain and update a satellite-based global temperature dataset at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. That global dataset shows less global warming than scattered surface-based thermometers, which are prone to increasing spurious heat sources over time.

But in the case of Lake Mead, the datasets (such as those in the three graphs above) are not even in question. The problem is that lazy and biased reporting - even in some scientific reports - has led to the widespread misperception that climate change is responsible for Lake Mead losing water. It’s not.

Lake Mead is being drained. It’s not climate change.

Roy W. Spencer is a Ph.D. meteorologist and climate researcher at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and was formerly an award-winning NASA Senior Scientist for Climate Studies.

Jun 20, 2022
Indian Coal Makes Electricity as Wind Farms Sit Idle

by Vijay Jayaraj

Amidst the clamor surrounding the intensive use of coal in China and India, one may not realize that these nations have some of the world’s largest renewable energy installations.

image

In fact, I hail from the Indian state of Tamil Nadu which is often compared to Scandinavia for its large number of wind farms. Accounting for 25 percent of the country’s wind capacity, the state has the largest share of such generating assets in a nation of 1.3 billion people.

Yet even Tamil Nadu relies heavily on coal to meet its electricity demands, with power emergencies and blackouts being the order of the day anytime there are shortages of fuel. It is much the same across the country, where 70 percent of the electricity comes from coal.

The much-touted wind farms are of little help in such emergencies. Yes, they generate electricity, but it is highly insignificant, only 4.6 billion units compared to coal’s 92 billion units. Despite wind accounting for 10 percent of total installed capacity in the country’s power sector, its total contribution to generation is less than three percent. Wind farms simply cannot produce on-demand electricity, and certainly not in the amount needed by large cities.

“Yet again, power cuts have become the norm in Tamil Nadu; there is already a huge impact on people’s lives,” said the former chief minister of the state.

Last month, Tamil Nadu’s chief minister pleaded for more coal as supply was critically low: “The Chief Minister M K Stalin wrote to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, demanding his intervention to ensure the supply of 72,000 (million tonnes) of coal per day.”

Even a small hiccup in the supply of coal results in widespread blackouts across an entire state. This reveals that the wind capacity of the state is an exaggerated asset that cannot deliver when power is needed. The wind farms work well only during optimum wind months, which means they are useless for more than half of the year.

The officials in charge of delivering power to people are aware of this pathetic situation and, hence, continue to invest in fossil fuel energy sources, especially coal.

The state recently approved the construction of an additional 2,640 megawatts of capacity at a 1,600-megawatt coal-fired plant despite opposition from various quarters. A total of 607 hectares were acquired for the installation of stages 2 and 3 at the Super Critical Thermal Power Project at Udangudi. The plant will look to import 30 percent of its coal from Indonesia, South Africa, Australia, and China.

Further, the federal government of India has now decided “to tackle the power crisis by invoking Section 11 of the Electricity Act, mandating all imported coal-based projects to generate power at full capacity.”

Instead of curtailing coal plants, as climate doomsayers demand, India is increasing its coal dependency. With a forecast of severe shortage in the coming months, the federal government is stepping in to import more coal and avoid more blackouts. “Coal India would import coal for blending on a government-to-government basis and supply ... to thermal power plants of state generators and independent power producers,” the federal Power Ministry said in a May 28 letter.

The federal government has asked coastal plants to import as much coal as possible and promised to provide loans to do so. Electricity demand from coal plants is so high that the state of Tamil Nadu and a few others have allowed plants to increase prices.

Vijay Jayaraj is a Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Arlington, Va., and holds a Master’s degree in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia, England. He resides in Bengaluru, India.

First published here at Human Events on June 6, 2022.

Sep 07, 2023
How NOAA, UN, helped create the illusion of Global Warming

CO2 Coalition, Gordon Fulks, Tony Heller

I traveled to Oregon last week at the invitation of a CO2 Coalition supporter. Besides being completely off the grid at a lodge on the scenic Rogue River, I gave a presentation to about 50 people from southern Oregon after returning from the wilderness. As you can imagine, the climate zealots are in full-on crisis mode in the Beaver State. For my talk, I examined Oregon-specific temperature data. The top image shows Annual Mean Temperature that reveals about a 1-degree Fahrenheit (F) increase since 1895 which is hardly a crisis.

image
Enlarged

Interestingly, maximum temperatures were basically flat going back 125 years, while the low temperature readings had increased by 2.0 degrees F. Increasing night-time low temperatures benefits agriculture by extending growing seasons. Sleep well, Oregonians. There is no climate crisis.

image
Enlarged

So, what will the citizens of Oregon get for going to net zero? Analysis using the MAGICC simulator indicates that, had the state attained zero emissions in 2010, the warming averted in 2050 and 2100 would be 0.0007 and 0.0018 degrees Fahrenheit, respectively.  These are theoretical effects that could not be measured and would make no difference.

Oregonian scientist Dr. Gordon Fulks commented.

“About ten years ago, I downloaded this chart from NOAA ‘Climate at a Glance:’”

image
Enlarged

“Then a few years later I went back to get the latest version.  Low and behold, NOAA had cooked the results:”

image
Enlarged

Actually, NOAA had cooled the past to create an upward trend and make the spike in 1934 slightly lower than the spike in 2015.

The version that I retrieved today appears to be just an updated version of the 2016 chart above, namely suspect:

image
Enlarged

-----------------

Tony Heller responds: “The reason for the change in graphs is that NOAA is now cooling Pacific Northwest temperatures prior to 2008 between 0.5 and 1.F, and warming recent temperatures by 0 to 0.5F”

image
Enlarged

image
Enlarged

The source for the two datasets can be found hereand here.

See a timetable of this and other adjustments made over time - all in the direction of the theory for political reasons here.

Dec 21, 2022
Glacial CO₂-Temperature phases

Dr. Patrick Frank

I’ve been studying Neftel, et al. (1988). CO₂ record in the Byrd ice core 50,000-5,000 years bp. Nature 331(6157), 609-611.

It’s a fine-grained record of dO-18 and ice core CO₂ across the Holocene transition. I digitized the CO₂ and dO-18 depth data from their Figure 4 and then used to conversion expressions in Hammer, et al., (1994) Electrical conductivity method (ECM) stratigraphic dating of the Byrd Station ice core, Antarctica. Annals of Glaciology 20,115-120 to convert meters to years.

A polynomial fit to each data set followed by taking first derivatives of the fits, allowed estimation of the timing of phase turnover for CO₂ and dO-18 presaging the Holocene.

The result is the attached figure. Air temperature (dO-18) rose about 1000 years before CO₂ began to rise.

image
Enlarged

Neftel, et al., themselves say, “The dO-18 record is shifted by 12m towards greater depth to compare the same age for both records. This assumes an age difference of 600 years between the ice and the mean age in the bubbles. The dO-18 ratio starts to increase between 200 and 1,200 years before the CO₂ concentration starts to increase. At the time the CO₂ starts to rise, the dO-18 ratio increase is already 20-30% of the total shift at the glacial/interglacial transition. According to these results the ?...” (my underline).

Neftel, et al., was published on 1 February 1988, 4 months before Jim Hansen’s 23 June 1988 testimony before Congress sparked the CO₂ frenzy.

So in June 1988, scientists in the field already knew that the only good hard data in hand disconfirmed the CO₂-temperature connection. And they pretended surprise when the later VOSTOK record appeared, confirming the Byrd result.

Did Jim Hansen know? Did he go ahead with his testimony knowing it had been empirically contradicted? That seems to be a very fair question, going to integrity.

Sep 15, 2022
Claims of a ‘climate crisis’ not supported by empirical data, Italian scientists find

The Daily Sceptic, 14 September 2022

Four leading Italian scientists have undertaken a major review of historical climate trends and concluded that declaring a ‘climate emergency’ is not supported by the data.

Reviewing data from a wide range of weather phenomena, they say a ‘climate crisis’ of the kind people are becoming alarmed about “is not evident yet”.

The scientists suggest that rather than burdening our children with anxiety about climate change, we should encourage them to think about issues like energy, food and health, and the challenges in each area, with a more “objective and constructive spirit” and not waste limited resources on “costly and ineffective solutions”.

During the course of their work, the scientists found that rainfall intensity and frequency is stationary in many parts of the world. Tropical hurricanes and cyclones show little change over the long term, and the same is true of U.S. tornadoes. Other meteorological categories including natural disasters, floods, droughts and ecosystem productivity show no “clear positive trend of extreme events”. Regarding ecosystems, the scientists note a considerable “greening” of global plant biomass in recent decades caused by higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Satellite data show “greening” trends over most of the planet, increasing food yields and pushing back deserts.

The four scientists are all highly qualified and include physics adjunct professor Gianluca Alimonti, agrometeorologist Luigi Mariani and physics professors Franco Prodi and Renato Angelo Ricci. The last two are signatories to the rapidly growing ‘World Climate Declaration’. This petition states that there is no climate emergency and calls for climate science to be more scientific. It also calls for liberation from the “naive belief in immature climate models”. In future, it says, “climate research must give significantly more emphasis to empirical science”.

‘Extreme’ weather events attributed by climate models - somehow - to anthropogenic global warming are now the main staple of the climate alarmist industry. As the Daily Sceptic reported on Monday, Sir David Attenborough used a U.K. Met Office model forecast in the first episode of Frozen Planet II to claim that summer Arctic sea ice could be gone within 12 years. But the likelihood of hardy swimming galas over the North Pole by 2035 seems somewhat remote, not least because Arctic sea ice has been growing in many summers since 2012. According to a recent report from the U.S.-based National Snow and Ice Data Center, at the end of August “sea ice extent is likely to remain higher than in recent years”.

Hurricane and cyclones are favorite subjects for green alarmists. It is unsurprising why they focus on these storms, since the Italian scientists note that historically around 60% of all economic damage caused by global disasters is the consequence of U.S. hurricanes. On May 27th, the Met Office predicted that the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June to November, would “most likely” be above average, with a “likelihood” of 18 named tropical storms including nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes. In fact, the current Atlantic hurricane season has had its slowest start for 30 years. At the end of August there have been no hurricanes, and only three named storms, none of which produced winds of 74mph or higher.

There is plenty of evidence that hurricane and cyclone frequency and intensity has changed little over the recent historical record. “To date, global observations do not show any significant trends in both the number and the energy accumulated by hurricanes,” note the Italian scientists. The two graphs below demonstrate this.

The IPCC has reported that hurricanes have increased in frequency in the North Atlantic since 1878, but the scientists note that observations were relatively low during the first decades of the 20th century. After adjusting for lack of observational capacities in the past, there is a nominal upward trend. This trend, they explain, “is not significantly distinguishable from zero”.

The scientists accept that there has been a recent increase in heatwaves, which they attribute to the 1C rise in global temperatures, although they note global heatwave intensity trends “are not significant”. They also point out that only a limited number of weather stations have observed an increase in global rainfall.

Corresponding evidence for increases in flooding remains elusive, they say, “and a long list of studies shows little or no evidence of increased flood magnitudes, with some studies finding more evidence of decreases than increases”. So far as drought is concerned, the scientists note the AR5 finding of the IPCC that “conclusions regarding global drought trends increasing since the 1970s are no longer supported”. Several studies are said to show no increase in the main indices regarding global droughts.

In fact, a slightly warmer and wetter planet and a little extra CO2 seem to have done wonders for global crop yields. For the period 1961-2019, maize, rice, soybean and wheat global average yields are reported to have grown every year by 3.3%, 2.4%, 2.6% and 3.8% respectively.

Well-researched, fact-driven, credible scientific papers such as this are crucial in the battle to stop green activists and rentiers having a free run to catastrophise every bad weather event in the interest of promoting a command-and-control Net Zero agenda. Attempting to attribute single weather events to humans burning fossil fuels is the product of feverish imaginations and ‘garbage in, garbage out’ climate models. Rational, evidence-based science should be promoted at every opportunity.

Apr 06, 2016
“…climate change is UN hoax to create new world order”

Trump gives hope to derailment of the establishment’s plans (both parties) for a New World Order - which would cede our rights and control over our lives including a redistribution of any wealth to the UN.

Update: see the whole story behind the story in their own words in Global Warming Quotes & Climate Change Quotes: Human-Caused Global Warming Advocates/Supporters by C3 Headlines.

Quotes by H.L. Mencken, famous columnist: “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed - and hence clamorous to be led to safety - by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.” And, “The urge to save humanity is almost always only a false face for the urge to rule it.”

We start with Mencken’s quotes because they are so well known from the past, but yet still so relevant so many years later. His past insights to those whose lives are addicted to the seeking of power, or control, or fame, or money is still as valid today, as it was 70 years ago. Below are quotes from the powerful; the rich; the religious; the studious; the famous; the fanatics; and, the aspiring, all sharing a common theme of keeping “the populace alarmed” to further their own personal, selfish goals.

The threat to the world is not man-made global warming or climate change. The threat to the world, as is always the case, is a current group(s) of humans who want to impose their values and desires on others. The people below represent such a group, and they are not saints as individuals; in fact, quite the opposite, unfortunately.

Once you read the below quotes, come back and re-read the previous paragraph. The threat to the world is not man-made global warming or climate change. The threat to the world, as is always the case, is a current group(s) of humans who want to impose an ‘Agenda’ based on their elite values and self-importance. The people below represent such a group, and they are not saints as individuals; in fact, quite the opposite, unfortunately.

See the quotes here.

---------

Australia PM’s adviser: climate change is UN hoax to create new world order

Maurice Newman, chairman of Tony Abbott’s business advisory council, says UN is using debunked climate change science to impose authoritarian rule.

The Australian prime minister’s chief business adviser has accused the United Nations of using debunked climate change science to lead a new world order - provocative claims made to coincide with a visit from the top UN climate negotiator.

Christiana Figueres, who heads the UN framework convention on climate change, touring Australia this week, urged the country to move away from heavily polluting coal production.

Under Tony Abbott’s leadership, Australia has been reluctant to engage in global climate change politics, unsuccessfully attempting to keep the issue off the agenda of the G20 leaders’ summit in Brisbane last year.

Maurice Newman, the chairman of Abbott’s business advisory council and a climate change sceptic with a history of making provocative statements, said the UN was using false models showing sustained temperature increases to end democracy and impose authoritarian rule.

“The real agenda is concentrated political authority,” Newman wrote in an opinion piece published in the Australian newspaper. “Global warming is the hook. It’s about a new world order under the control of the UN....

“It is opposed to capitalism and freedom and has made environmental catastrophism a household topic to achieve its objective.”

Figueres used an address in Melbourne to urge Australia to move away from coal, the country’s second-largest export, as the world grapples with global warming.

“Economic diversification will be a challenge that Australia faces,” she said.

Abbott has described coal as “good for humanity” and the “foundation of prosperity” for the foreseeable future.

Figueres also urged Australia to play a leading role at the climate summit in Paris in December, a call unlikely to be heeded given Abbott’s track record.

At the Brisbane G20 meeting, he warned that the Paris summit would fail if world leaders decided to put cutting carbon emissions ahead of economic growth.

At home, Abbott, who in 2009 said the science behind climate change was “crap”, repealed a tax on carbon pricing and abolished the independent Climate Commission advisory body.

Asked on the Canberra leg of her trip if the politics around renewable energy was as toxic elsewhere in the world, Figueres said: “No. At the global level what we see is increased participation of renewables, increased investment in renewables, increased excitement about renewables.”

Abbott’s office and the UN did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

-----------

An orchestrated movement:

Puppet masters (Government agencies, NGOs, billionaires and politicians), many who believed the world has too many people that consume too much of the world’s resources decided to move us towards one world government to control both.

They use the UN as the organization that would unify the word around their agenda using the lure of money (redistribution of wealth). They take control of the science through funding.

They take control of the universities and research labs again through funding efforts that supported their agenda, purging or silencing the faculty not tenured and making life miserable for those that were tenured who did not go along, firing lab employees who resisted. Take control of the curriculum from K-8 to college on science and social issues.

Take control of the professional societies - easy to do since most were academics riding the grant gravy train - have many work on statements endorsing their theory as fact never voted on by their members.

Take control of the major journals used by scientists, removing editors who allowed papers that challenged the tenets of the theory, ensuring at least one reviewer would be assigned to every submitted challenging paper who would reject it.

Take control of the media (easy since 95% are sympathetic to the ‘cause’wink. The Society of Environmental Journalists actually published a handbook on how to deal with doubters and slant their coverage. The NJOS, WH, Media Matters provide talking points to the media after official reports are issued.

They demonize skeptics - using words like climate change deniers, claim they were funded by big oil (when big oil was funding their side - BP $500M to UC Berkeley, Exxon $100M to Stanford and all told well over 1 Trillion..  They claim we don’t publish in the major journals they control, though many thousands have published real science in journals that they do not control.

Sep 23, 2015
In regards to the false 97% “consensus”

Derek Alker

Updated: Public and many to most real scientists are unconvinced.

From: Malcolm Roberts [mailto:malcolmr@conscious.com.au]
Sent: Friday, 24 April 2015 12:07 PM
To: UQ VC OFFICE
Cc: John Cook; Ove Hoegh-Guldberg; FORBES VIV; Carter Bob; Plimer Ian; Jennifer Marohasy
Subject: D15/7927: Complaint of serious corruption of science by UQ’s John Cook and Ove Hoegh-Guldberg

Dear Professor Hoj:

As an honours engineering graduate from the University of Queensland I am inquiring of you as to the reasons our university supports the work of John Cook who serially misrepresents climate and science? Specifically, why is our university wasting valuable funds to mislead the public through a free course and by producing associated international video material?  Course

Please refer to the lower half of page 4 of Appendix 5, here.

It details John Cook’s fabrication of an unscientific ‘consensus’. Science is not decided by claims of consensus. Resorting to claims of consensus is unscientific and contradicts the scientific process.

Fabricating false claims of scientific consensus is not honest.

Science is decided by empirical scientific evidence. John Cook has repeatedly failed to provide any such evidence that use of hydrocarbon fuels is causing the entirely natural climate variability we experience.

A succinct summary of John Cook’s fabrication of a consensus, and of the corruption of science upon which his claims rely and that is furthered by his claims, and of the empirical scientific evidence he blatantly contradicts, are discussed in pages 6-18 of my report to federal MPs Senator Simon Birmingham and Bob Baldwin. It is available at this link

My seven years of independent investigation have proven that there is no such empirical scientific evidence anywhere in the world. Climate alarm is unfounded and is a purely political construct pushing a political agenda. Please refer to Appendices 2, 6, 6a, 7 and 8 at this link.

John Cook’s core public climate claims are false and blatantly contradict empirical scientific evidence. Please refer to appendix 4 at the same link.

image

Further, John Cook and / or his employer are receiving funds in return for his deceiving the public, politicians and journalists and I’m wondering if that would make his work a serious offense.

As you likely know, John Cook works closely with the university’s Ove Hoegh-Guldberg who reportedly has many serious conflicts of financial interest surrounding his false climate claims. These are discussed on pages 54-59 of Appendix 9 at this link and briefly on pages 16 and 17 of my report to Senator Birmingham and Bob Baldwin MP.

I draw your attention to my formal complain dated Wednesday 10 November 2010 to the university senate about the work of Ove Hoegh-Guldberg misrepresenting climate and science. That was not independently investigated by then Vice Chancellor Paul Greenberg who was subsequently dismissed over another event, reportedly for a breach of ethics. My formal complaint is discussed on pages 57 and 58 of Appendix 9 at this link.

Ove Hoegh-Guldberg’s responses to my request for empirical scientific evidence of human causation of climate variability have repeatedly and always failed to provide such evidence.

This email is openly copied to both Ove Hoegh-Guldberg and John Cook and to reputable Australian scientists and academics expert on climate and to Viv Forbes an honours graduate in geology from our university. Viv Forbes understands the key facts on climate and on the corruption of climate science by beneficiaries of unfounded climate alarm perpetrated falsely by Ove Hoegh-Guldberg and John Cook.

Please stop John Cook’s misrepresentations and restore scientific integrity to our university. I please request a meeting with you to discuss our university’s role in deceiving the public and to discuss restoring scientific integrity. I would be pleased for that meeting to be in the company of John Cook and Ove Hoegh-Guldberg if that suits you.

Pages 19-26 of my report to Senator Birmingham and Bob Baldwin discuss the serious damage to our nation and to humanity and our natural environment worldwide as a result of unfounded climate alarm spread by our university’s staff. I hope that you will fulfill your responsibility for investigating and ending such corruption. To neglect to do so will mean that you condone such damage and dishonesty. I seek confidence that you will restore the university’s scientific integrity and look forward to your reply.

Yours sincerely,

Malcolm Roberts

BE (Hons) UQ, MB U Chicago, Member Beta Gamma Sigma Honours Society

Fellow AICD, MAIM, MAusIMM, MAME (USA), MIMM (UK), Fellow ASQ (USA, Aust)

------------

The 97% “consensus” study, Cook et al. (2013) has been thoroughly refuted in scholarly peer-reviewed journals, by major news media, public policy organizations and think tanks, highly credentialed scientists and extensively in the climate blogosphere. The shoddy methodology of Cook’s study has been shown to be so fatally flawed that well known climate scientists have publicly spoken out against it,

image

“The ‘97% consensus’ article is poorly conceived, poorly designed and poorly executed. It obscures the complexities of the climate issue and it is a sign of the desperately poor level of public and policy debate in this country [UK] that the energy minister should cite it.”

Mike Hulme, Ph.D. Professor of Climate Change, University of East Anglia (UEA)

Only 65 Scientists of 12,000 Make up Alleged 97% on Climate Change and Global Warming Consensus According to Breakdown of Cook et al study, say Friends of Science

In response to multiple inquiries from media and global warming advocates, Friends of Science issue this release to expose the statistical manipulation evident from the break down of the Cook et al paper. Friends of Science decry the linking of this flawed study with alleged danger from man-made carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) as there has been no global warming in 16 years despite a rise in CO2 levels; Friends of Science say the sun and oceanic oscillations are the main drivers of climate change, not CO2.

See faulty methodology of Cook study.

The following is a list of 97 articles that refute Cook’s (poorly conceived, poorly designed and poorly executed) 97% “consensus” study. The fact that anyone continues to bring up such soundly debunked nonsense like Cook’s study is an embarrassment to science. See the list here.

----------------------

See the Galileo Movement here. Visit Then click on the blue text: “9.2.12 Evidence of Political Fraud - Malcolm Roberts”

----------

See Dr. Doug Hoyt’s Greenhouse Scorecard on Warwick Hughes site here.

-----------

From Jack Black’s Climate Change Dictionary

PEER REVIEW: The act of banding together a group of like-minded academics with a funding conflict of interest, for the purpose of squeezing out any research voices that threaten the multi-million dollar government grant gravy train.

SETTLED SCIENCE: Betrayal of the scientific method for politics or money or both.

DENIER: Anyone who suspects the truth.

CLIMATE CHANGE: What has been happening for billions of years, but should now be flogged to produce ‘panic for profit.’

NOBEL PEACE PRIZE: Leftist Nutcase Prize, unrelated to “Peace” in any meaningful way.

DATA, EVIDENCE: Unnecessary details. If anyone asks for this, see “DENIER,” above.

CLIMATE SCIENTIST: A person skilled in spouting obscure, scientific-sounding jargon that has the effect of deflecting requests for “DATA” by “DENIERS.’ Also skilled at affecting an aura of “Smartest Person in the Room” to buffalo gullible legislators and journalists.

JUNK SCIENCE: The use of invalid scientific evidence resulting in findings of causation which simply cannot be justified or understood from the standpoint of the current state of credible scientific or medical knowledge

--------

Speaking of junk science, see Lubos Motl’s excellent point by point counter to the John Cook 104 talking points document attacking the skeptical science here.

NOTE:

See all the talks at the latest ICCC9 Conference in Las Vegas in 2014 here.

Heartland has the presentations and powerpoints posted for the Heartland ICCC IV.  If you could not go, there is plenty to see there. Please remember the goldmine of videos and PPTs at the Heartland ICCC proceeding sites for 2008 NYC here, 2009 NYC here and 2009 DC here. Here is a PPT I gave at the Heartland Instutute ICCC Meeting in 2008 and here is the follow up in 2009. Here is an abbreviated PPT in two parts I presented at a UK conference last month: Part 1, Part 2.

----------------------

See C3 Headlines excellent collection of graphs and charts that show AGW is nonsense here.

-----------------------

See Climate Theater with a collection of the best climate skeptic films and documentaries here. See additional scientific youtubes here.

The left loves to reference desmogblog.com when any skeptic produce an analysis or paper challenging CAGW - see the real story about this looney left green PR firm here.

---------------

1350+ Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skepticism of “Man-Made” Global Warming Alarm and here a list of 1000 stories suggesting global cooling has begun.

“The above papers support skepticism of “man-made” global warming or the environmental or economic effects of. Addendums, comments, corrections, erratum, replies, responses and submitted papers are not included in the peer-reviewed paper count. These are included as references in defense of various papers. There are many more listings than just the 900-1000 papers. Ordering of the papers is alphabetical by title except for the Hockey Stick, Cosmic Rays and Solar sections which are chronological. This list will be updated and corrected as necessary.”

The less intelligent alarmists have written a paper allegedly connecting the scientists to Exxon Mobil. Here is the detailed response from some of the featured scientists. Note that though this continues to be a knee jerk reaction by some of the followers, there is no funding of skeptic causes by big oil BUT Exxon has funded Stanford warmists to the tune of $100 million and BP UC Berkeley to $500,000,000. Climategate emails showed CRU/Hadley soliciting oil dollars and receiving $23,000,000 in funding.

See still more annotated here.

--------------

Many more papers are catalogued at Pete’s Place here.

The science and economics of global warming are not too complicated for the average person to consider and make up his or her own mind. We urge you to do that. Go here and view some of the articles linked under “What’s New” or “A Primer on Global Warming.” Or go here and read about the new report from the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), which comprehensively rebuts the claims of the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Go here for the sources for the factual statements in the ads.

---------------

Go to and become a member of WeatherBell Analytics here.

Website of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) here. It’s 2013 report detailed information from almost 4,000 papers.

Science and Public Policy Institute here. SADLY BLOCKED ACCESS NOW.

Intellicast Dr. Dewpoint Library here. REMOVED AND REPLACED BY ZERO VALUE NONSENSE FROM the radical WEATHER UNDERGROUND

RedNeck Engineer Energy and Innovation here.

The Weather Wiz here. See how they have added THE WIZ SCHOOL (UPPER LEFT) to their website. An excellent educational tool for teachers at all class levels. “Education is the kindling of a flame, not the filling of a vessel” - Socrates (470--399 BC)