The sun’s magnetic field may have a significant impact on weather and climatic parameters in Australia and other countries in the northern and southern hemispheres. According to a study in Geographical Research, the droughts are related to the solar magnetic phases and not the greenhouse effect. The study uses data from 1876 to the present to examine the correlation between solar cycles and the extreme rainfall in Australia.

It finds that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - the basic tool for forecasting variations in global and oceanic patterns - and rainfall fluctuations recorded over the last decade are similar to those in 1914 -1924. Author Professor Robert G. V. Baker from the School of Environmental Studies, University of New England, Australia, says, “The interaction between the directionality in the Sun’s and Earth’s magnetic fields, the incidence of ultraviolet radiation over the tropical Pacific, and changes in sea surface temperatures with cloud cover - could all contribute to an explanation of substantial changes in the SOI from solar cycle fluctuations. If solar cycles continue to show relational values to climate patterns, there is the potential for more accurate forecasting through to 2010 and possibly beyond.”

The SOI-solar association has been investigated recently due to increasing interest in the relationship between the sun’s cycles and the climate. The solar application offers the potential for the long-range prediction of SOI behavior and associated rainfall variations, since quasi-periodicity in solar activity results in an expected cycle of situations and phases that are not random events. Professor Baker adds, “This discovery could substantially advance forecasting from months to decades. It should result in much better long-term management of agricultural production and water resources, in areas where rainfall is correlated to SOI and El Nino (ENSO) events.”

The sun’s magnetic field may have a significant impact on weather and climatic parameters in Australia and other countries in the northern and southern hemispheres.

Journal reference: Baker et al. Exploratory Analysis of Similarities in Solar Cycle Magnetic Phases with Southern Oscillation Index Fluctuations in Eastern Australia. Geographical Research, 2008; 46 (4): 380 DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-5871.2008.00537.x

Read more here.

The Carbon Sense Coalition today called on Australian governments to focus more on energy security, particularly domestic oil exploration, production and refining capacity. Responding to a Queensland government paper entitled “Towards Oil Resilience”, Viv Forbes, Chairman of “Carbon Sense”, said that far too much exploration land was locked up in No-Go areas such as marine parks, national parks, world heritage areas, aboriginal reserves and other restricted areas.

Oil tankers pose far more threat to the coastline and the Great Barrier Reef than would a few oil production platforms and far less eyesore and hazard than hundreds of wind towers. A few inconspicuous oil wells would also disfigure the outback environment far less than thousands of solar panels. And they do less environmental damage than clearing or cultivating vast tracts of land to convert food into ethanol.

Australia is a huge island in a remote corner of the world. Everything we eat, export or import relies on ships, planes, tractors, trucks and trains. These all run on hydro-carbon fuels. Yet every Ministerial statement on energy prattles on endlessly about wind, solar and geothermal energy. For the foreseeable future, our mobile machinery will run on oil, gas, or electricity from coal.

When the next war closes the Middle East oilfields or the sea lanes, Australians will be found trying to run their farm trucks on charcoal burners or waste cooking oil. They will then remember the fools who locked up our own oil on our own land and closed every oil refinery with a totally unnecessary Emissions Trading Scheme.

To read the full submission from The Carbon Sense Coalition “Improving Energy Security” go here.

Viv Forbes
Chairman
The Carbon Sense Coalition
MS 23 Rosewood, Qld 4340
info@carbon-sense.com
www.carbon-sense.com.

A new method is proposed for determining if a group of datasets contain a signal in common. The method, which I call Correlation Distribution Analysis (CDA), is shown to be able to detect common signals down to a signal:noise ratio of 1:10. In addition, the method reveals how much of the common signal is contained by each proxy. I applied the method to the Mann et al. 2008 (hereinafter M2008) proxies. I analysed all (N=95) of the M008 proxies which contain data from 1001 to 1980. These contain a clear hockeystick shaped signal. CDA shows that the hockeystick shape is entirely due to Tiljander proxies plus high-altitude southwestern US “stripbark” pines (bristlecones, foxtails, etc). When these are removed, the hockeystick shape disappears entirely.

Here is the plot with all the proxies:

Hmmm … that looks suspiciously like the original MBH98 results, the infamous “HockeyStick”. Once we remove the four Tiljander proxies, it is obvious that the whole edifice is built on a few closely related high-elevation, moisture limited pine trees located in the southwestern US. These tree rings make up no less than 19 of the 21 remaining top proxies after Ti ljander is removed. In other words, the bristlecones are back and with a vengeance.

I guess the deal is that no self-respecting paleoclimate reconstruction would be complete without the bristlecone pines (PILO), which make up no less than 12 of the remaining top 21 (after Tiljander is removed). In addition we have the bristlecone’s cousins, the limber pine (PIFL) and the foxtail pine (PIBA). All of these records contain are from similar ecosystems and contain similar signals. The overwhelming majority were collected by Graybill. His work has been called into serious question by LInah Abadneh’s thesis, wherein she was unable to replicate his results.

If I ran the zoo, I’d throw out all of those high altitude pine tree ring records. They are known to have problems, their use has been recommended against, and the principle investigator’s work is under a cloud. I would omit them. After removing the Tiljander and the southwestern US pines, the average looks like this:

Read full post and see Willis’s methods for the analysis here.

Read more papers on why Mann and his hockey stick must hold the Guinness Book of World Record listing for most often debunked scientist and theory.

Viv Forbes from the Carbon Sense Coalition today called on the Australian Government to announce an immediate moratorium on plans to introduce an Emissions Trading Scheme. “In the midst of global financial turmoil and plummeting profits for Australia’s backbone industries, it is irresponsible to maintain uncertainty on who will be affected by these taxes, when and by how much.

“Australia is more reliant on mining, transport, electricity, cement, smelting, refining, farming, tourism and trade than any other country in the world. Taxes on emissions of carbon dioxide will reduce growth and jobs in all of these industries. The longer this uncertainty remains, the more jobs will be lost or go overseas.

“Cap and tax schemes will soon be quite unnecessary for most countries because the recession is already cutting emissions as mines and factories close, transport and travel contract, and the production of steel, cement and electricity falls. This will be a good taste of the effect on Cap and Tax rules on the economy. People everywhere will suddenly realize that life was far better with a job, and no one except green plants will be able to notice there is a growing shortage of harmless, invisible carbon dioxide plant food in the air.”

“Slowly the world is coming to their senses on this Global Warming hysteria. Just this week China and India rejected the suggestion that they curb their emissions of CO2, and Italy and Poland said they would veto EU plans unless changes were made. The US congress is also focused on jobs, not global warming myths. Even the New Zealand government is having a re-think.

The Australian government says they will do anything to promote jobs and growth. An important and urgent first step for any jobs preservation policy is to announce that this Emissions Trading sword dangling over the head of every Australian business has been removed, for a guaranteed 5 years at least.” Read more here.

This is not what President-elect Barack Obama’s energy and climate strategists would want to hear. It would be anathema to Al Gore and other assorted luminaries touting renewable energy sources which in one giant swoop will save the world from the “tyranny” of fossil fuels and mitigate global warming. And as if these were not big enough issues, oilman T. Boone Pickens’ grandiose plan for wind farms from Texas to Canada is supposed to bring about a replacement for the natural gas now used for power generation. That move will then lead to energy independence from foreign oil.

Too good to be true? Yes, and in fact it is a lot worse. Wind has been the cornerstone of almost all environmentalist and social engineering proclamations for more than three decades and has accelerated to a crescendo the last few years in both the United States and the European Union. But Europe, getting a head start, has had to cope with the reality borne by experience and it is a pretty ugly picture.

Independent reports have consistently revealed an industry plagued by high construction and maintenance costs, highly volatile reliability and a voracious appetite for taxpayer subsidies. Such is the economic strain on taxpayer funds being poured into wind power by Europe’s early pioneers—Denmark, Germany and Spain – that all have recently been forced to scale back their investments. 

As a result this summer, the U.K., under pressure to meet an ambitious E.U. climate target of 20 percent carbon dioxide cuts by 2020, assumed the mantle of world leader in wind power production. It did so as a direct consequence of the U.K. Government’s Renewables Obligations Certificate, a financial incentive scheme for power companies to build wind farms. Thus the U.K.’s wind operation provides the ideal case study—and one that provides the most complete conclusions. The U.K. has all the natural advantages. It is the windiest country in Europe. It has one of the continent’s longest coastlines for the more productive (and less obtrusive) offshore farms. It has a long-established national power grid. In short, if wind power is less than successful in the U.K., its success is not guaranteed anywhere. For all the public investment, wind produces a mere 1.3 percent of the U.K.’s energy needs. Read more here.

The Carbon Sense Coalition today called on the Queensland Government to follow the lead of New Zealand and initiate a complete review of the science and the cost-benefits of the proposals to levy a new tax on coal and petrol usage.

“All over the world, three factors are triggering a revolt against the lemming-like rush led by the Anglo-Saxons to commit carbon suicide via Emissions Trading Schemes.” “Firstly, the science behind the scare forecasts from IPCC computer models has been shown to be deficient by a growing band of independent scientists. Secondly, the globe itself is sending a warning as daily reports of unseasonal frosts, snow and ice make a mockery of the global warming hysteria. We certainly have climate change, but it is natural global cooling, not man-made global warming.”

“Thirdly, the world financial collapse has forced alert politicians to focus on the immediate concerns of voters - real jobs, and the security of supply for food and power. “The revolt against new carbon rationing and taxes affecting New Zealand now encompasses much of the world including India, China, Indonesia, Brazil, Poland, Italy, Germany and the whole Ex-Soviet bloc. There is naturally no support for carbon rationing from the OPEC world, and falling support from Canada. There is also scant chance that the US Congress and Senate will embrace any expensive new Kyoto pact.”

Soon the only true believers will be the blinkered political and Green zealots in UK and Australia, with cynical support from nuclear-powered France. “Queensland has more to lose from carbon taxes and rationing than any other place in the world. And there has been no unbiased assessment of the costs and benefits of such moves. Any government honestly representing the real long term interests of the carbon capital will lead the push to review where we are headed, why and at what cost?”

“The incoming National government [in New Zealand] will completely review the emissions trading scheme (ETS) - possibly including the science that says humans are to blame for climate change - as part of its support deal with ACT. A draft terms of reference for the review attached to the agreement, includes hearing “competing views on the scientific aspects of climate change” and looking at the merits of a “mitigation or adaptation approach”. The deal requires the National government to pass immediate legislation delaying the implementation of the ETS until the review is complete.”
--Grant Fleming, The New Zealand Herald, 16 November 2008. Reported in CCNet 166/2008 - 17 November 2008.

Read more here.

Turn up the heat, somebody. The globe is freezing. Even Al Gore is looking for an extra blanket. Winter has barely come to the northern latitudes and already we’ve got bigger goosebumps than usual. So far the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports 63 record snowfalls in the United States, 115 lowest-ever temperatures for the month. Only 44 Octobers over the past 114 years have been cooler than this last one.

The polar ice is accumulating faster than usual, and some of the experts now concede that the globe hasn’t warmed since 1995. You may have noticed, in fact, that Al and his pals, having given up on the sun, no longer even warn of global warming. Now it’s “climate change.” The marketing men enlisted by Al and the doom criers to come up with a flexible “brand” took a cue from the country philosopher who observed, correctly, that “if you’ve got one foot in the fire and the other in a bucket of ice, on average you’re warm.” On average, “climate change” covers every possibility.

This is similar to the science practiced by Dr. James Hansen at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the source of much of the voodoo that Al Gore has been peddling since the doctor showed up at a Senate hearing in 1988 and told ghost stories that Al swallowed whole. Only last month Dr. Hansen’s institute announced that October was the hottest on record, and then said “uh, never mind.” The London Daily Telegraph calls this “a surreal blunder [that] raised a huge question mark about the temperature records that underpin the worldwide alarm over global warming.”

In this account, the institute had to make the humiliating climb-down after two leading skeptics of the global-warming scam, Anthony Watts, an American meteorologist, and Steve McIntyre, a Canadian computer analyst, discovered that temperature readings from September had been carried over and repeated for October. We should sigh, shrug and give the scientists at NASA the benefit of the doubt that this was a mistake and not a deliberate howl at the moon. A spokesman for the institute explains that readings borrowed from Russia, which had been described as 10 degrees higher than normal for October, distorted the figures but, after all, the data had been obtained from others. So we should blame someone else.

This is the science we’re expected to take on faith. This sets a new standard for hubris, arrogance and haughty self-importance. Skeptics of the global-warming scam, even those with unquestioned academic and real-world credentials, are treated as ignorant pariahs by pundits, presidential candidates and other politicians who know better, or ought to. Read more here.

The Washinton Times article by Kelly Hearn US dealing with security concerns from change in climate stated the following: “Coastal military facilities are threatened by rising sea levels and more frequent major, damaging weather events such as hurricanes and Tornadoes. Although Mr. Fingar declined to give details apart from the number of installations in peril, a Pentagon official told The Washington Times that the Pentagon has commissioned a network of scientists to create a model for predicting the impact of storm surges and sea-level rises on military facilities on the Gulf Coast, in the Mid-Atlantic region and in Southern California.

Dr. Richard Courtney, a UN IPCC expert reviewer and a UK-based climate and atmospheric science consultant made the following News Blog concerning this issue: “Coastal military facilities are threatened by rising sea levels, Really?”

See larger image here

The above graph is S.J.Holgate’s reconstruction of the rate of sea level rise rate the 20th century obtained from the highest quality tide gauge data in his 2007 GRL paper. The IPCC’s 4th assessment report (2007) only mentioned Holgate’s 2004 data and ignored his 2007 data (shown in the above graph). In his 2007 paper, Holgate says: “…the two highest decadal rates of change were recorded in the decades centered on 1980 (5.31 mm/yr) and 1939 (4.68 mm/yr) with the most negative decadal rates of change over the past 100 years during the decades centered on 1964 (-1.49 mm/yr) and 1987 (-1.33 mm/yr). There were also significant high decadal rates of change during the late 1910s, 1950s and 1990s. Negative decadal rates of change are seen in the early 1920s and early 1970s.” So, where is the evidence for an increase to sea level rate of rise that would threaten coastal military installations? It is not found in the observed seal level changes.

And “Coastal military facilities are threatened by more frequent major, damaging weather events such as hurricanes and tornadoes.” Really? The article titled “30 -year low for N. Hemisphere tropical cyclone activity” seems pertinent and is at all the article deserves reading, but it begins saying: “The past two years have seen a “remarkable” downturn in hurricane activity, contradicting predictions of more storms, researchers at Florida State University say. The 2007 and 2008 hurricane seasons had the least tropical activity in the Northern Hemisphere in 30 years, according to Ryan Maue, co-author of a report on Global Tropical Cyclone Activity. “Even though North Atlantic hurricane activity was expectedly above normal, the Western and Eastern Pacific basins have produced considerably fewer than normal typhoons and hurricanes,” he said. See full post here.