Apologies, apologies! I’ve been on sabbatical, working on several other projects during the past months and have been remiss in my column writing. So it’s time to put pen to paper and continue where I left off:  exposing the greatest fraud in the history of science: the theory (yes, theory) of man-made global warming, aka “climate change” and “climate disruption.” (The charlatans and ignoramuses promoting this alarmist nonsense can’t decide what name to give their junk science.)

From this day forward, I will endeavor to regularly inform, enlighten and entertain those readers (both skeptics and self-confessed warmists) who are exposed daily to a constant stream of climate change propaganda peddled by lazy, uninquisitive reporters who willingly serve as advocate-stenographers (Andrew Revkin, are you reading?) for global warming alarmism.

As I’ve done in the past, let me mention one very important point:  the theory of human-induced global warming is exactly that—a theory.  The scientists promoting it—the Jim Hansens, Kenneth Trenberths and Phil Joneses of the world—have never demonstrated conclusively that human CO2 emissions are warming the planet. Even laymen researchers who’ve done a few hours of homework (and don’t rely on PR releases for their data) know that humans produce a whopping 0.28 percent of the so-called greenhouse gases, with anthropogenic (man-made) CO2 accounting for a minuscule 0.117 percent of the total. Using a real-world comparison, 0.117 percent of a football field would equal just over four inches.

The warmists’ scientific conclusions are based purely on climate modeling, not experimentation, observation or hard empirical data. Worse, they’ve turned the scientific method on its head. Instead of constructing a theory and then rigorously testing and re-testing to see if it stands up to scientific examination, they start with a pre-ordained conclusion (i.e., fossil fuel-based CO2 emissions cause the earth to warm) and then manipulate and tune their computer models to churn out data that support it. In short, human-induced global warming is the product of laboratory computer simulations and over-active imaginations; it doesn’t exist in the real world.

Another article of faith that deserves a healthy dose of skepticism—from warmists and lukewarmists alike—is the so-called greenhouse theory. According to this sacrosanct doctrine, CO2 and other greenhouse gases “trap” infrared readiation, thus acting like a thermal blanket, raising the earth’s atmospheric temperature to a cozy 33 degrees centigrade. Lucky humanity: Without this atmospheric greenhouse guardian, we’d spend a small fortune heating our homes while arming ourselves against nuisance polar bears roaming the countryside.

It should be noted that the greenhouse theory is relatively modern in origin and, as astrophysicist Joseph Postma observes, “is never mentioned in any fundamental work of thermodynamics, physical kinetics or radiation theory.” Try as you may, you won’t find the terms greenhouse effect or glass-house effect mentioned in any classical textbooks on experimental or theoretical physics.

According to Postma, “the Greenhouse Effect is indeed a theory; it is not a benign empirical fact, such as the existence of the sun, for example. As a theory it has a scientific development which is open to inspection and review.”

But in the minds of the warmists, questioning the theology of greenhouse warming is akin to blasphemy. Better to be caught red-handed showering with a 12-year-old in a Penn State locker room.

As W.R. Pratt points out in his article, “The Science is Settled?” a scientific hypothesis is not established science.  Yes, the greenhouse hypothesis has been around for 180 years since it was first proposed in the 1820s by Joseph Fourier and later refined by John Tyndall, professor of physics at the Royal Institution of Great Britain in the 1850s.  But, according to Pratt, the hypothesis remains unproven despite arguments to the contrary.

As he explains:

“In order to single out certain atmospheric gases and demonize them as the culprits responsible for atmospheric warming, it was necessary to attribute certain characteristics to the so-called ‘Greenhouse Gases’ with regard to radiant heat, which would set them apart from the two most abundant atmospheric gases, Oxygen and Nitrogen.”

According to Pratt, Tyndall fallaciously argued that oxygen and nitrogen are “practically transparent to radiant heat,” a hypothesis that serves as the foundation of today’s AGW fraud. He challenges Tyndall’s thesis:

“It has been suggested that the ability of oxygen and nitrogen to absorb heat is virtually undetectable under laboratory conditions but it must be remembered that the quantities examined under such conditions would be minute. These two gases alone make up 99% of all the atmosphere, so their overall effect on atmospheric temperature is not to be underestimated.

“Firstly, Oxygen and Nitrogen both have higher specific heat capacities than CO2 [see:Specific heat capacity of Gases]. Secondly, and above all, Oxygen and Nitrogen, of course, do indeed absorb infrared radiation [see: Infrared absorption bands for OXYGEN and A close-up of an infrared absorption band for NITROGEN]. The problem for the hypothesis of the ‘Greenhouse Effect’ and, of course, AGW itself is that the basic premise on which the hypothesis is based is false.”

Is Pratt correct?  I don’t know, but his arguments deserve a fair hearing. As skeptics have long argued, science is about debate and the dogged pursuit of facts supported by down-and-dirty research and rigorous experimentation. Science thrives on different points of view that are openly debated. But it suffers when scientists who should know better argue that the “science is settled” (science is never settled) while ridiculing and denouncing anyone who expresses opposing viewpoints.

As the Nobel Prize-winnng American physicist Richard P. Feynman once said,

“It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.”

WELCOME BACK KIRK, YOU HAVE BEEN MISSED.

Prof. Michael E. Mann writes ("Climate Contrarians Ignore Overwhelming Evidence,” Letters, Dec. 5) that his 1999 “hockey stick” graph “showed that average temperatures today are higher than they have been for at least the past 1,000 years.”

But Mr. Mann’s paper only covered the northern hemisphere. It included the questionable use of annual bristlecone-pine tree rings for temperature reconstruction. Even then, it replaced some tree-ring data with estimates. Tree-ring series that showed a 20th-century uptick were given 390 times the weighting of other series, according to a 2005 study by Ross McKitrick, an environmental economist at the University of Guelph. Mr. Mann and his fellow Climategate emailers used what they called “Mann’s Nature trick” to “hide” the mismatch between late-20th-century warming and the cooling the tree-rings showed.

Meanwhile, Mr. Mann has often refused to supply programs and data to researchers wishing to verify his work. The 2006 Wegman report for the U.S. House of Representatives showed that many of the papers supporting Mr. Mann’s results, which appeared shortly after Mr. McKitrick and his colleague Stephen McIntyre published their expose of his graph, were written largely by Mr. Mann’s associates and co-authors.

The National Academy of Sciences did not, as Mr. Mann says, “affirm” his conclusions, for the data were insufficient. Papers by scientists from all over the world show the medieval warm period that Mr. Mann’s work appeared to abolish was real, global and warmer than today.

Mr. Mann’s questionable result casts doubt on the scientific standards of the Climategate scientists and the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

It is frequently asserted that climate change could have devastating consequences for poor countries. Indeed, this assertion is used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other organizations as one of the primary justifications for imposing restrictions on human emissions of greenhouse gases.

But there is an internal contradiction in the IPCC’s own claims. Indeed, the same highly influential report from the IPCC claims both that poor countries will fare terribly and that they will be much better off than they are today. So, which is it? The apparent contradiction arises because of inconsistencies in the way the IPCC assesses impacts. The process begins with various scenarios of future emissions.

These scenarios are themselves predicated on certain assumptions about the rate of economic growth and related technological change. Under the IPCC’s highest growth scenario, by 2100 GDP per capita in poor countries will be double the U.S.’s 2006 level, even taking into account any negative impact of climate change. (By 2200, it will be triple.) Yet that very same scenario is also the one that leads to the greatest rise in temperature - and is the one that has been used to justify all sorts of scare stories about the impact of climate change on the poor. Under this highest growth scenario (known as A1FI), the poor will logically have adopted, adapted and innovated all manner of new technololgies, making them far better able to adapt to the future climate. But these improvements in adaptive capacity are virtually ignored by most global warming impact assessments. Consequently, the IPCC’s “impacts” assessments systematically overestimate the negative impact of global warming, while underestimating the positive impact. Moreover, in these “impacts” assessments, global warming is not expected for the most part to create new problems; rather, it is expected to exacerbate some existing problems of poverty (in particular, hunger, disease, extreme events), while relieving others (such as habitat loss and water shortages in some places).

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which would reduce every warming impact regardless of whether it is good or bad, is but one approach to dealing with the consequences of warming. And it would likely be very costly. In fact, reducing emissions is unlikely to help poorer countries deal with most of the problems they face either today or in the future. With respect to mortality from hunger, malaria and extreme events, for example, global warming is estimated to contribute to only 13% of the problem in 2085.

Another approach to reducing the impact of global warming would be to reduce the climatesensitive problems of poverty through “focused adaptation.” This might involve, for example, major investments in early warning systems, the development of new crop varieties, and public health interventions. Focused adaptation would allow society to capture the benefits of global warming while allowing it to reduce climate-sensitive problems that global warming might worsen. For instance, emission reductions would at most reduce mortality from hunger, malaria and extreme events by only 13%, whereas focused adaptation could essentially eliminate these causes of mortality.

A third approach would be to fix the root cause of why developing countries are deemed to be most at-risk, namely, poverty. Sustained economic growth would, as is evident from the experience of developed countries, address virtually all problems of poverty, not just that portion exacerbated by global warming. It is far more certain that sustainable economic growth will provide greater benefits than emission reductions: while there is no doubt that poverty leads to disease and death, there is substantial doubt regarding the reality and magnitude of the negative impact of global warming. This is especially true as assessments often ignore improvements in adaptive capacity. Of these three approaches, human well-being in poorer countries is likely to be advanced most effectively by sustained economic development and least by emission reductions. In addition, because of the inertia of the climate system, economic development is likely to bear fruit faster than any emission reductions.

For richer countries, too, net GDP per capita in the future is expected to be much higher than it is today despite any climate change. Thus, all countries should focus on generating sustained economic development. This approach would not only address all of the current problems that might get worse in the future but would also enable humanity to address more effectively any other future problems it encounters, whether climate-related or otherwise.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) deems poor countries to be at greater risk from global warming (GW) than rich countries because they are less able to mobilize the resources required to use technologies needed to cope with the impact of GW. That is, their “adaptive capacity” is low.

The IPCC also claims that GW will exacerbate many problems - such as malaria and other vector-borne diseases, hunger, water shortages, vulnerability to extreme weather events and flooding - that the poor currently face and with which they have difficulty coping. Yet aren’t these both basically the same thing and both caused by an underlying lack of economic development?

Building on the notion that the current adaptive capacity of poor countries is low, the IPCC, among others, claims that global warming could also hinder their sustainable development. Others argue that the impact of global warming could overwhelm weak or poor governments, leading to economic and political instability, which, in turn, could breed terrorism and conflict, and precipitate mass migration to richer countries.

This paper seeks to assess whether these assertions are justified. It begins with a discussion that sheds light on the main factors that affect the trends in climate-sensitive indicators of human wellbeing. The discussion recognizes the role of fossil fuels in powering economic and technological development.

Next, it examines the notion - implicit in the view that poor countries will be swamped by the future impact of GW - that their adaptive capacity will remain low in the future. It specifically examines whether this view is justified in light of the economic assumptions built into the IPCC scenarios.

These economic assumptions are among the primary drivers of the IPCC’s climate change projections, which are then used to estimate the likely future impact (including specific damages) from GW. They are, thus, fundamental to estimates of the magnitude and direction of the future impact of GW. The paper then considers the proposition that while higher rates of economic development would lead to greater climate-related impact from GW, it would also result in higher adaptive capacity. This raises the question as to whether or not the economic development and associated technological change assumed by the IPCC scenarios will increase the damage from GW faster than the increases in adaptive capacity and, consequently, hinder sustainable development. Likewise, it raises the question as to whether insufficient economic and technological development would hinder the ability to cope with future GW.

The answers to these questions are crucial in determining which policy is best suited to addressing GW resulting from human activity. Finally, based on the foregoing analysis, the paper outlines policies to help advance human wellbeing in poor countries while enhancing their ability to cope with GW.

I’ve written before about scientific error cascades and the pernicious things that happen when junk science becomes the focus or rationale of a political crusade.

The worst example of this sort of thing in my lifetime, and arguably in the entire history of science, has been the AGW (anthropogenic global warming) panic. Now that the wheels are falling off that juggernaut, I’m starting to hear ordinary people around me wonder how I knew it was bullshit and hot air so much in advance…

Some of the answer to that is complicated and not easily replicable. I happened to have the right sort of knowledge base to know that, for example, specific AGW-panicker claims about historical climate were impossible to reconcile with primary evidence - wine grapes grown at 59 degrees north around the year 1000, that sort of thing. This motivated me to dig for other problems with their narrative well before they were really on the public’s radar.

But a lot of it was more general. I’ve seen a lot of “scientific” panics ginned up from nonexistent or scanty evidence over the last several decades. There’s a pattern to these episodes, a characteristic stench that becomes recognizable after a while. I’ll describe some of the indicia, which I’ve culled from episodes like the Alar scare, the ozone-hole brouhaha, the AIDS panic (are you old enough to remember when it was predicted to become endemic among heterosexuals in the U.S.?), acid rain, and even the great global cooling flap of 1975.

So. Here is a non-exclusive list of seven eight symptoms to watch out for:

Science by press release. It’s never, ever a good sign when ‘scientists’ announce dramatic results before publishing in a peer-reviewed journal. When this happens, we generally find out later that they were either self-deluded or functioning as political animals rather than scientists. This generalizes a bit; one should also be suspicious of, for example, science first broadcast by congressional testimony or talk-show circuit.

Rhetoric that mixes science with the tropes of eschatological panic. When the argument for theory X slides from “theory X is supported by evidence” to “a terrible catastrophe looms over us if theory X is true, therefore we cannot risk disbelieving it”, you can be pretty sure that X is junk science. Consciously or unconsciously, advocates who say these sorts of things are trying to panic the herd into stampeding rather than focusing on the quality of the evidence for theory X.

Rhetoric that mixes science with the tropes of moral panic. When the argument for theory X slides from “theory X is supported by evidence” to “only bad/sinful/uncaring people disbelieve theory X”, you can be even more sure that theory X is junk science. Consciously or unconsciously, advocates who say these sorts of things are trying to induce a state of preference falsification in which people are peer-pressured to publicly affirm a belief in theory X in spite of private doubts.

Consignment of failed predictions to the memory hole. It’s a sign of sound science when advocates for theory X publicly acknowledge failed predictions and explain why they think they can now make better ones. Conversely, it’s a sign of junk science when they try to bury failed predictions and deny they ever made them.

Over-reliance on computer models replete with bugger factors that aren’t causally justified… No, this is not unique to climatology; you see it a lot in epidemiology and economics, just to name two fields that start with ‘e’. The key point here is that simply fitting historical data is not causal justification; there are lots of ways to dishonestly make that happen, or honestly fool yourself about it. If you don’t have a generative account of why your formulas and coupling constants look the way they do (a generative account which itself makes falsifiable predictions), you’re not doing science - you’re doing numerology.

If a ‘scientific’ theory seems tailor-made for the needs of politicians or advocacy organizations, it probably has been. Real scientific results have a cross-grained tendency not to fit transient political categories. Accordingly, if you think theory X stinks of political construction, you’re probably right. This is one of the simplest but most difficult lessons in junk-science spotting! The most difficult case is recognizing that this is happening even when you agree with the cause.

Past purveyers of junk science do not change their spots. One of the earliest indicators in many outbreaks of junk science is enthusiastic endorsements by people and advocacy organizations associated with past outbreaks. This one is particularly useful in spotting environmental junk science, because unreliable environmental-advocacy organizations tend to have long public pedigrees including frequent episodes of apocalyptic yelling. It is pardonable to be taken in by this the first time, but foolish by the fourth and fifth.

Refusal to make primary data sets available for inspection. When people doing sound science are challenged to produce the observational and experimental data their theories are supposed to be based on, they do it. (There are a couple of principled exceptions here; particle physicists can’t save the unreduced data from particle collisions, there are too many terabytes per second of it.) It is a strong sign of junk science when a ‘scientist’ claims to have retained raw data sets but refuses to release them to critics.

It would be way, way too easy to list the ways these symptoms have manifested with respect to the AGW panic. It’s a more useful exercise for the reader to think back and try to recognize them in previous junk-science flaps. Go and learn. And don’t get fooled again.

Ever since the first Climategate e-mail release, the public has become increasingly aware that scientists are not unbiased. Of course, most scientists with a long enough history in their fields already knew this (I discussed the issue at length in my first book Climate Confusion), but it took the first round of Climategate e-mails to demonstrate it to the world.

The latest release (Climategate 2.0) not only reveals bias, but also some private doubts among the core scientist faithful about the scientific basis for the IPCC’s policy goals. Yet, the IPCC’s “cause” (Michael Mann’s term) appears to trump all else.

So, when the science doesn’t support The Cause, the faithful turn toward discussions of how to craft a story which minimizes doubt about the IPCC’s findings. After considerable reflection, I’m going to avoid using the term ‘conspiracy’ to describe this activity, and discuss it in terms of scientific bias.

It’s Impossible to Avoid Bias

We are all familiar with competing experts in a trial who have diametrically opposed opinions on some matter, even given the same evidence. This happens in science all the time.

Even if we have perfect measurements of Nature, scientists can still come to different conclusions about what those measurements mean in terms of cause and effect. So, biases on the part of scientists inevitably influence their opinions. The formation of a hypothesis of how nature works is always biased by the scientist’s worldview and limited amount of knowledge, as well as the limited availability of research funding from a government that has biased policy interests to preserve.

Admittedly, the existence of bias in scientific research - which is always present - does not mean the research is necessarily wrong. But as I often remind people, it’s much easier to be wrong than right in science. This is because, while the physical world works in only one way, we can dream up a myriad ways by which we think it works. And they can’ all be correct.

So, bias ends up being the enemy of the search for scientific truth because it keeps us from entertaining alternative hypotheses for how the physical world works. It increases the likelihood that our conclusions are wrong.

The IPCC’ Bias

In the case of global warming research, the alternative (non-consensus) hypothesis that some or most of the climate change we have observed is natural is the one that the IPCC must avoid at all cost. This is why the Hockey Stick was so prized: it was hailed as evidence that humans, not Nature, rule over climate change.

The Climategate 2.0 e-mails show how entrenched this bias has become among the handful of scientists who have been the most willing participants and supporters of The Cause. These scientists only rose to the top because they were willing to actively promote the IPCC’ message with their particular fields of research.

Unfortunately, there is no way to “ix"the IPCC, and there never was. The reason is that its formation over 20 years ago was to support political and energy policy goals, not to search for scientific truth. I know this not only because one of the first IPCC directors told me so, but also because it is the way the IPCC leadership behaves. If you disagree with their interpretation of climate change, you are left out of the IPCC process. They ignore or fight against any evidence which does not support their policy-driven mission, even to the point of pressuring scientific journals not to publish papers which might hurt the IPCC’s efforts.

I believe that most of the hundreds of scientists supporting the IPCC’s efforts are just playing along, assured of continued funding. In my experience, they are either: (1) true believers in The Cause; (2) think we need to get away from using fossil fuels anyway; or (3) rationalize their involvement based upon the non-zero chance of catastrophic climate change.

My Biases

I am up front about my biases: I think market forces will take care of the fact that “fossil” fuels are (probably) a limited resource. Slowly increasing scarcity will lead to higher prices, which will make alternative energy research more attractive. This is more efficient that trying to legislate new forms of energy into existence.

I also think currently proposed energy policies will cause widespread death and suffering. The IPCC not only destroys scientific objectivity and scientific progress, it also destroys lives.

Therefore, I view it as my moral duty to support the “forgotten science” of natural climate change, a class of alternative hypotheses that have all but been ignored by the IPCC and government funding agencies.

I hope I am correct that most climate change we have experienced is natural. But I also know that “hoping” doesn’t make it so. If I had new scientific evidence that human-caused climate change really was a threat to life on Earth, I would publish it. It would sure be easier to publish than evidence against.

But from everything I’ve seen, I still think Nature probably rules, and that humans (as part of nature) also have some unknown level influence on climate. We know that the existence of trees affects climate - why not the existence of humans?

Countering the Bias

Scientists are human, and so you will never remove the tendencies toward bias in scientific research. You can’t change human nature.

But you can level the playing field by supporting alternative biases.

For years John Christy and I have been advising Congress that some portion of the appropriated funds for federal agencies supporting climate change research should be mandated to support alternative hypotheses of climate change. It’s time for the pendulum to start swinging back the other way.

After all, scientists will go where the money is. If scientists are funded to find evidence of natural sources of climate change, believe me, they will find it.

If you build such a playing field, they will come.

But when only one hypothesis is allowed as the explanation for climate change (e.g. “the science is settled"), the bias becomes so thick and acrid that everyone can smell the stench. Everyone except the IPCC leadership, that is.

BBC In Cahoots With Climategate Scientists

Britain’s leading green activist research centre spent 15,000 pounds on seminars for top BBC executives in an apparent bid to block climate change sceptics from the airwaves, a vast new cache of leaked ‘Climategate’ emails has revealed. The emails - part of a trove of more than 5,200 messages that appear to have been stolen from computers at the University of East Anglia - shed light for the first time on an incestuous web of interlocking relationships between BBC journalists and the university’s scientists, which goes back more than a decade. They show that University staff vetted BBC scripts, used their contacts at the Corporation to stop sceptics being interviewed and were consulted about how the broadcaster should alter its programme output. BBC insiders say the close links between the Corporation and the UEA’s two climate science departments, the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Research, have had a significant impact on its coverage. - David Rose, Mail on Sunday, 27 November 2011

Labour MP Graham Stringer last night said he would be writing this week to BBC director-general Mark Thompson to demand an investigation into the Corporation’s relationship with UEA. ‘The new leaked emails show that the UEA scientists at the Tyndall Centre and the CRU acted more like campaigners than academics, and that they succeeded in an attempt to influence the output of the BBC,’ Mr Stringer said.  - David Rose, Mail on Sunday, 27 November 2011

Using research money to evangelise one point of view and suppress another defies everything I ever learnt about the scientific method. These emails go to the heart of the BBC’s professed impartiality… its actions must be investigated. --David Davis MP, Mail on Sunday, 27 November 2011

Steve Hilton, the Prime Minister’s director of strategy and ‘green guru’, is the latest person to admit to doubts about climate change. ‘I’m not sure I believe in it,’ he announced at a meeting of the Energy Department, prompting one aide to blurt out: ‘Did I just hear that correctly?’ Hilton has become a big fan of former Chancellor Nigel Lawson, a vocal critic of the global warming lobby. His new doubts chime with the Prime Minister’s decision to tone down his previous emphasis on environmental measures to concentrate on stimulating economic growth. --Mail on Sunday, 27 November 2011

The individual (or individuals) who, in November 2009, released 1,000 emails to and from IPCC-affiliated climate scientists, igniting the Climategate scandal, struck again earlier this week. The leaker(s) released an additional 5,000 emails involving the same cast of characters, notably Phil Jones of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia, and Michael Mann, creator of the discredited Hockey Stick reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere temperature history. The blogosphere quickly branded the new trove of emails “Climategate 2.0.”

The timing in each case was not fortuitous. The Climategate emails made painfully clear that the scientists shaping the huge - and hugely influential - IPCC climate change assessment reports are not impartial experts but agenda-driven activists. Climategate exposed leading U.N.-affiliated scientists as schemers colluding to manipulate public opinion, downplay inconvenient data, bias the peer review process, marginalize skeptical scientists, and flout freedom of information laws. Climategate thus contributed to the failure of the December 2009 Copenhagen climate conference to negotiate a successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol. Similarly, Climategate 2.0 arrives shortly before the December 2011 climate conference in Durban - although nobody expects the delegates to agree on a post-Kyoto climate treaty anyway.

Excerpts from Climategate 2.0 emails appear to confirm in spades earlier criticisms of the IPCC climate science establishment arising out of Climategate. My colleague, Myron Ebell, enables us to see this at a glance by sorting the exerpts into categories.

They know the climate models are junk, but say the opposite in the IPCC reports:

<0850> Barnett:
[IPCC AR5 models] clearly, some tuning or very good luck involved.  I doubt the modeling world will be able to get away with this much longer

<5066> Hegerl:
[IPCC AR5 models] So using the 20th c for tuning is just doing what some people have long suspected us of doing [...] and what the nonpublished diagram from NCAR showing correlation between aerosol forcing and sensitivity also suggested.

<4443> Jones:
Basic problem is that all models are wrong - not got enough middle and low level clouds.

<1982> Santer:
there is no individual model that does well in all of the SST and water vapor tests we’ve applied.

Intentional cherry picking of data:

<2775> Jones:
I too don’t see why the schemes should be symmetrical. The temperature ones certainly will not as we’re choosing the periods to show warming.

<5111> Pollack:
But it will be very difficult to make the MWP go away in Greenland.

<5039> Rahmstorf:
You chose to depict the one based on C14 solar data, which kind of stands out in Medieval times. It would be much nicer to show the version driven by Be10 solar forcing

<0953> Jones:
This will reduce the 1940-1970 cooling in NH temps. Explaining the cooling with sulphates won’t be quite as necessary.

<4165> Jones:
what he [Zwiers] has done comes to a different conclusion than Caspar and Gene!  I reckon this can be saved by careful wording.

<3994> Mitchell/MetO
Is the PCA approach robust? Are the results statistically significant? It seems to me that in the case of MBH the answer in each is no

<4241> Wilson:
I thought I’d play around with some randomly generated time-series and see if I could ‘reconstruct’ northern hemisphere temperatures. [...] The reconstructions clearly show a ‘hockey-stick’ trend. I guess this is precisely the phenomenon that Macintyre has been going on about.

<4758> Osborn:
Because how can we be critical of Crowley for throwing out 40-years in the middle of his calibration, when we’re throwing out all post-1960 data ‘cos the MXD has a non-temperature signal in it, and also all pre-1881 or pre-1871 data ‘cos the temperature data may have a non-temperature signal in it!

<0121> Jones:
[on temperature data adjustments] Upshot is that their trend will increase

Cherry picking of authors to get the right spin in the IPCC reports:

<0714> Jones:
Getting people we know and trust [into IPCC] is vital – hence my comment about the tornadoes group.

<3205> Jones:
Useful ones [for IPCC] might be Baldwin, Benestad (written on the solar/cloud issue - on the right side, i.e anti-Svensmark), Bohm, Brown, Christy (will be have to involve him ?)

Subordinating science to a political agenda:

<4716> Adams:
Somehow we have to leave the[m] thinking OK, climate change is extremely complicated, BUT I accept the dominant view that people are affecting it, and that impacts produces risk that needs careful and urgent attention.

<1790> Lorenzoni:
I agree with the importance of extreme events as foci for public and governmental opinion [...] ‘climate change’ needs to be present in people’s daily lives. They should be reminded that it is a continuously occurring and evolving phenomenon

<1485> Mann:
the important thing is to make sure they’re loosing the PR battle. That’s what the site [Real Climate] is about.

<2428> Ashton/co2.org:
Having established scale and urgency, the political challenge is then to turn this from an argument about the cost of cutting emissions - bad politics - to one about the value of a stable climate - much better politics. [...] the most valuable thing to do is to tell the story about abrupt change as vividly as possible

<3332> Kelly:
the current commitments, even with some strengthening, are little different from what would have happened without a climate treaty. [...] the way to pitch the analysis is to argue that precautionary action must be taken now to protect reserves etc against the inevitable

<3655> Singer/WWF:
we as an NGO working on climate policy need such a document pretty soon for the public and for informed decision makers in order to get a) a debate started and b) in order to get into the media the context between climate extremes/desasters/costs and finally the link between weather extremes and energy

<5131> Shukla/IGES:
["Future of the IPCC”, 2008] It is inconceivable that policymakers will be willing to make billion-and trillion-dollar decisions for adaptation to the projected regional climate change based on models that do not even describe and simulate the processes that are the building blocks of climate variability.

Intentional cover-up:

<2733> Crowley:
Phil, thanks for your thoughts - guarantee there will be no dirty laundry in the open.

<2440> Jones:
I’ve been told that IPCC is above national FOI Acts. One way to cover yourself and all those working in AR5 would be to delete all emails at the end of the process

<1577> Jones:
Any work we have done in the past is done on the back of the research grants we get - and has to be well hidden. I’ve discussed this with the main funder (US Dept of Energy) in the past and they are happy about not releasing the original station data.

Candid comments not reflected in public statements:

<4693> Crowley:
I am not convinced that the “truth” is always worth reaching if it is at the cost of damaged personal relationships

<4141> Minns/Tyndall Centre:
In my experience, global warming freezing is already a bit of a public relations problem with the media

<1682> Wils:
[2007] What if climate change appears to be just mainly a multidecadal natural fluctuation? They’ll kill us probably [...]

<3373> Bradley:
I’m sure you agree - the Mann/Jones GRL paper was truly pathetic and should never have been published. I don’t want to be associated with that 2000 year “reconstruction”.

Predictably, Michael Mann asserts that these excerpts are “taken out of context.” To my knowledge, neither Mann nor his comrades has supplied the context that supposedly puts these comments in a better light. Note too that Mann and all other Climategate malefactors assert that the leaked emails were “hacked” and “stolen.” There is no solid evidence to support this allegation. For all we know, the leaker was an insider - a whistleblower fed up with CRU’s refusal to comply with freedom of information laws. When they decry the “illegal hack” of the CRU server, they speak not as scientists weighing evidence but as partisans pushing spin. Exactly the portrait that emerges from the leaked emails.

Science reporter David Appell, hardly a climate change skeptic, writes that, “Even trying to guess at the context and keeping it in mind, some of these [Climatgate 2.0] excerpts are inexplicable.” In fact, Appell states, “just reading the README file emails, these sound worse than I thought at first - their impact will be devastating.”

That the leaker opposes the IPCC agenda of climate alarm and energy rationing is obvious - why else release the emails in the run-up to U.N. climate conferences? But it is far from obvious - as IPCC apologists assume - that the leaker is a shill for Big Oil or King Coal. A possible explanation of motive may be infered from the README file’s opening lines:

/// FOIA 2011 0 Background and Context ///

“Over 2.5 billion people live on less than $2 a day.”

“Every day nearly 16.000 children die from hunger and related causes.”

“One dollar can save a life” - the opposite must also be true.

“Poverty is a death sentence.”

“Nations must invest $37 trillion in energy technologies by 2030 to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at sustainable levels.”

I would put it this way. There are risks of climate policy as well as of climate change, and the former may far outweigh the latter. More than one billion people on planet Earth live in energy squalor and struggle to survive without electricity, motor vehicles, and mechanized agriculture. Putting an energy-starved world on an energy diet is neither humane nor enlightened.

A professor who served on a panel that won a Nobel Peace Prize for its work on climate change got a polite but skeptical reception at the fifth annual Kern County Energy Summit Wednesday.

The summit put on by the Kern Economic Development Corp. featured a range of speakers from the energy sector, including oil and gas, wind, solar, utilities, investment banking and government.

The keynote speaker was Mark Jaccard, who teaches in the School of Resource and Environmental Management at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver.

Jaccard—with former vice president Al Gore and colleagues on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for helping to raise awareness of global warming.

Jaccard continued to warn of the perils of a warming earth at Wednesday’s speech to several hundred people at the Marriott Hotel, and addressed doubters head-on.

“We cannot wish away the climate risk,” he said. “We must guard against the tendency in each of us to believe only what’s in our self-interest.

“Right now, we’re on a path to dramatically disrupt the climate, eco-system and oceans of the planet on which we depend. We need to take dramatic action.”

Jurisdictions such as California are leading the effort to limit carbon emissions, Jaccard added, but “more can and must be done.”

Although Jaccard is a relentless advocate for limiting greenhouse gases, he does not condemn the use of fossil fuels entirely, and in 2005 wrote a Donner Prize-winning policy book called “Sustainable Fossil Fuels.”

“Say no to burning fossil fuels, but don’t throw the CO2 fuels out with the fossil fuel bathwater,” Jaccard said.

The professor favors cap and trade systems that make emitting CO2 expensive, and carbon capture and sequestration technology that captures emissions from power plants and other industrial facilities and injects it deep underground to isolate it from the atmosphere.

Still, at the end of his address, Jaccard faced questions from audience members who clearly were dubious.

One person asked what made Jaccard so sure that global warming was man-made and not a result of natural warming and cooling cycles.

“One hundred and fifty years ago, people were predicting that if we continued to dump these gases into the atmosphere, temperatures would rise, and the increase would be dramatically different from the natural 10,000-year cycles that you’re talking about,” Jaccard replied. “And that’s exactly what’s happening.”

Another person, no doubt cognizant of the speaker’s home base, asked how a warmer world would be bad for cold places such as Canada.

“It’s actually not that hard a sell (in Canada),” Jaccard said. “You just have to think about the mountains that some of you like to hike in around here or the streams you like to fish in.”

It’s not that the earth will warm up, then flatten out and everyone will adapt to that new reality, Jaccard insisted. “The end-point of that path looks something like Venus. It’s really hot. At some point, we’re going to panic and say we need to do something about that.”

Jaccard cautioned against “cherry picking” scientists who are far outside the mainstream of scientific thought on global warming and its causes.

Approach the issue as you would a business decision, he said. If you were drilling for oil and three scientists told you that you faced some serious risks but one said you had nothing to worry about, wouldn’t you mitigate against risk based on the majority consensus?

The overwhelmingly conservative audience would have none of it, and even Jaccard conceded the issue is becoming more polarizing over time as Republicans, in particular, become increasingly skeptical.

After the summit, oil industry engineer Mike Familia said he found earlier presentations on wind industry potential in Kern County “interesting,” but wasn’t impressed by the keynote speaker.

“I guess he’s one of those experts who speaks so matter-of-factly about things that I don’t think are so matter-of-fact,” he said. “I think there was another side of the discussion.”

ICECAP Note: Here again we hear the claim that the hot Venus surface is because of runaway greenhouse warming but the heating is a result of a very dense atmosphere.  Venus’s atmosphere, composed chiefly of carbon dioxide produces a surface pressure 90 times greater than that on Earth. The pressurized atmosphere at the surface warms the air temperature to 467C (872F) - hot enough to melt lead. The surface of Venus experiences acid rain, due to the clouds of sulfuric acid clouds. 

Of all the planets in the Solar System, the seasons of Mars are the most Earth-like, due to the similar tilts of the two planets’ rotational axes. The lengths of the Martian seasons are about twice those of Earth’s, as Mars’ greater distance from the Sun leads to the Martian year being about two Earth years long. Martian surface temperatures vary from lows of about -87 C (-125 F) during the polar winters to highs of up to -5C (23F) in summers. The wide range in temperatures is due to the thin atmosphere and the resulting low atmospheric pressure, and the low thermal inertia of Martian soil. The planet is also 1.52 times as far from the sun as Earth, resulting in just 43% of the amount of sunlight.